$PVCT: Refractory scalp #Sarcoma

I wanted to dig deeper into Tan and Nehaus’ letter to the editor about the “Novel use of Rose Bengal (PV-10) in two cases of refractory scalp sarcoma.”

Refractory means “resistant to treatment or cure.” So, refractory scalp sarcoma means a sarcoma already shown to be resistant to other treatments. “A sarcoma is is a cancer that arises from transformed cells of mesenchymal origin. Sarcomas are quite rare. Common malignancies, such as breast, colon, and lung cancer, are almost always carcinoma.”

The article in ANZ Journal of Surgery is just another example of PV-10 have a positive effect on tumors.

The first patient previously underwent surgery, which was followed by radiotherapy to combat his sarcoma. Nodules, however, appeared afterwards in the area to which radiotherapy was applied. Rose Bengal (PV-10) was used, and a complete clinical response was attained.

The second patient also underwent, first, surgery and, second, radiotherapy. Rose Bengal was used with good clinical effect; however, he subsequently developed pulmonary metastases, which is being combated with a systemic chemotherapy. It does not appear from reading the letter that the pulmonary mets was challenged with PV-10.

Some would say, quickly: one success and one failure. More substantively and intellectually honestly: one complete success and one near success. After all, only two patients were treated, with limited frequency (once per patient) and amount of Rose Bengal treatment, with stunning success given sarcomas are rare. I doubt much successful clinical work has been done on patients with fibrous histiocytoma. Yet, here Rose Bengal is with near complete success (both patientdespite limited application.

Both patients were treated with PV-10 after first being treated with surgery and then with radiotherapy, an immunosuppressive therapy.

What happened with the second patient? Maybe surgery removed a certain antigenic type, and the pulmonary mets are another type that does not match. Tumor heterogeneity might be interfering (a topic of a blog entry that I will post in a bit). Maybe all of the high-affinity monoclonal antibodies capable of killing the tumor were killed by the radiotherapy treatment. How the patient was first treated (i.e., surgery, radiotherapy) might precipitate the failure of immune system to ultimately help in the removal of the tumor.

Maybe the patients’ parents didn’t give their now elderly son the proper genes for his immune system to respond. There are a number of these folks in any population, and saving them with any kind of treatment is a near impossibility.

As Craig has long said, and I expect Moffitt to confirm, using PV-10 first, followed if necessary by other treatments is the way to go. In the two cases highlighted by the authors, the approach was backwards. Yet, the “backwards” approach yielded good results on refractory sarcoma. Why backwards? Recall Foote et al.’s past and current work: PV-10 first, followed by radiotherapy. That appears to be the right treatment order.

Still, and to be intellectually honest, we’re talking about only two patients. There is much more to do and much more to learn.

$PVCT: Novel use of Rose Bengal (PV-10) in two cases of refractory scalp sarcoma (update)

Source here. (Updated 1/31/13: Link updated.)

Click to enlarge figure.

$PVCT: The @adamfeuerstein-Ratain Rule

A good read is Oncology Micro-Cap Stocks: Caveat Emptor!, a September 2011 article in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute authored and researched by Adam Feuerstein, Senior Columnist at TheStreet, and Dr. Mark J. Ratain, MD, Leon O. Jacobson Professor of Medicine at the University of Chicago Medicine.

The "Feuerstein-Ratain Rule:" If a publicly traded company has a market capitalization under $300MM 120 days before the issuance of public announcements (e.g., press releases, etc.) of its oncology Phase 3 clinical trials results, the trial will fail.

A key paragraph in the authors' article summarizes the essence of their rule:

The difference in the market capitalization at day −120 most likely reflects publically available information regarding the phase I and II clinical trials (as well as other factors, including competition and management), which has been incorporated into the market value of a stock. The stock market is known to anticipate future events, as opposed to reacting to the past. Thus, it is not surprising that sophisticated investors are able to judge the probability of success, which is reflected in the share price.

The results of their analysis are stark:

...there were no positive trials among the 21 micro-cap companies (ie, companies with less than $300 million market capitalization..., whereas 21 of 27 studies reported by the larger companies analyzed (greater than $1 billion capitalization) were positive.

0% (micro-cap) vs. 78% (larger cap).

The rule was tested, for the first time, in 2012 on Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX) and its drug Perifosine. On April 2, shares of Keryx fell by more than 60%.

0-for-22 (micro-cap).

Up next, in 2013, is Celsion (NASDAQ:CLSN) and ThermoDox. The company has scheduled a conference call tomorrow to present the top-line results from its pivotal Phase III HEAT Study with ThermoDox in combination with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma versus those patients receiving RFA alone. Celsion had a sub-$200MM market cap about 4 months (120 days) ago. Last week, Celsion announced a development deal with China's Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical.

0-for-23 (micro-cap), or 1-for-23?

It is too early to apply the rule to Provectus because the company is not close to the commencement of its pivotal MM Phase 3 trial and, thus, not close to the public release or announcement of trial data (i.e., interim, preliminary or final).

Nevertheless, it is informative to explore the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule, and keep it in mind as Provectus and its market capitalization approaches public pronouncement time.

For the MM Phase 3 trial, management thinks the company can make at least an April 1 start date should the SPA arrive on or around March 15. Further, management thinks interim data could be available in Q3 or Q4. Enrollment will take some time. The Dacarbazine control arm is expected to collapse within 1 to 2 months or less.

Assuming there is a public announcement of interim results by Provectus in late-Q3 (late-August to September) or Q4 (October to December) 2013 because, for this thought exercise, I assume results are available to announce, where would the company's share price have to be 4 months earlier in regards to the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule?

4 months earlier is early-May to early-September. At least a $300MM market cap is about $2.65 per share.

Between now, essentially the end of January, and early-May to early-September (illustratively), several events are needed or necessary to get Provectus' market cap safely above $300MM, and not have it become fodder for potentially another statistic for the lack of success of oncology micro-cap stocks and their Phase 3 trials:

• The receipt of the SPA around mid-March,
• The closing of the currently contemplated China deal (which should be much larger than Celsion's, assuming the Chinese pharma company exercises its option to do its Celsion deal) in late-February, and
• The release of highly anticipated Moffitt mouse and human data in early-April (e.g., "the closest thing we've seen to a cure for cancer," etc.).

$PVCT: Maxim Group -- Melanoma leading PV-10 development with liver cancer following; Reiterate Buy and $3.50 PT

Maxim Group analyst, Dr. Echo He, MD, PhD, issued an equity research note today on Provectus. Management circulated the report via Provectus News.

Dr. He's $3.50 price target, which is mostly irrelevant to me (coverage is more important), did not change from her previous reports. The price target also remained the same as the price target of her predecessor, Dr. Yale Jen, Ph.D., who now is at Roth Capital. Because of management's refusal to play the Wall Street game, generally speaking, equity research reports like these have some but not extensive value.

I do not think she changed top line revenue figures to reflect the addition of a liver indication, although she did make expense reductions in her model. The analyst also did not include the potential, probability-adjusted value of out-licensing opportunities in China or elsewhere.

As such, the $3.50 price target yields a baseline valuation of about $400MM market capitalization (using Dr. He's diluted shares outstanding) that effectively is a reasonable estimate of liquidation value to which the current share price and market cap must catch up. This value of course is nearly or completely illiquid because management would never monetize the company at this level.

Further increases in either price targets or actual market cap obviously will be based on key and pivotal milestones actually being achieved.

$PVCT: Novel use of Rose Bengal (PV-10) in two cases of refractory scalp sarcoma

$PVCT: @Moffitt Recruiting For Its $PVCT/PV-10 Human Immunological MOA Study

Source link here.

$PVCT: March Madness 2013

March Madness 2013 begins on Tuesday, March 19 and ends on Monday, April 8. The Final Four will be played in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia. I contend this period (including leading into it) will be an important time for the company, its more mainstream awareness, and the share price.

There is a lot of information to digest, from Craig's presentation at the Noble Financial Capital Markets Ninth Annual Equity Conference to Peter's trip to New York City.

PV-10
Most of Pete’s time lately, probably more than anything else it seems (save for another effort), is focused on communicating PV-10's unique immunotherapeutic characteristics in the context of global oncology. You see this manifested in discussions with Big Pharma (as Craig commented at Noble: "interactions with potential global license partners," and by that he does not include just Pfizer) and continued visiting with life sciences investors (trying to get them off the sidelines and into the stock).

PV-10 + “other stuff”
I think Craig et al.’s SITC work (PV-10 + systemic chemotherapy), their upcoming AACR work (PV-10 + systemic immunotherapy), Foote et al.’s expanded work (PV-10 + radiotherapy), and Craig’s skunk works work on more combinatory explorations (e.g., intra-tumoral GM-CSF, systemic interleukin, anti-PD-1 antibodies/agents, etc.) is opening a lot of eyes at Big Pharma and the FDA very wide.

Management is contemplating an MM Phase 1 trial combining PV-10 and ipilimumab (while Craig mentioned this in his Noble presentation, I also followed up). Perhaps the protocol might include the assessment of safety and efficacy in a number of patients with metastatic melanoma (Cohort 1 receives PV-10) and in a number of patients who are taking ipilimumab, an approved treatment for MM (Cohort 2).

As I wrote earlier this week, this combination work of PV-10 + ipi  clearly targets and is in response to serious interest from Big Pharma: Bristol-Myers Squibb & ipilimumab/Yervoy and Pfizer/MedImmune-AstraZeneca & tremelimumab (MedImmune in-licensed tremi from Pfizer in 2011 for global development rights to the drug while Pfizer retained rights to specified types of combination therapies).

The liver trials
Let's segue from combination therapies to the expanded liver P1 trial, and what the likely results will mean for the design and very likely outcome of the liver P2/P3 trial. I think there is enough information to speculate (of course, the foundation of the speculation merely is a framework, and not overly substantial) or project success of PV-10 + sorafenib (a systemic drug, so see PV-10 + other stuff above) over the sorafenib-alone treatment arm. Interference studies and other work confirm PV-10 is orthogonal to sorafenib (and lots of other drugs, too): PV-10 does not interact negatively with sorafenib, and appears to enhance sorafenib's benefit by PV-10 first boosting the immune system.

When Provectus announces -- via an upcoming PR -- that patients have begun to be enrolled and treated in the expanded liver P1 trial, the timeline of results making their way to the FDA should not be lengthy. The same FDA group of folks reviewing Provectus’ pivotal MM Phase 3 trial design suitable for an SPA, Division of Oncology Products 2 (DOP2), are the same folks (i.e., DOP2) who will review the company’s liver Phase 2/Phase 3 trial design suitable for accelerated approval.

The hard work, time, energy, resources, expense, etc. exerted to get the SPA for MM should pay-off when it comes time for management to request AA for liver.

The SPA
Barring another eleventh hour request or issue, it appears the SPA should arrive around March 15.

While it certainly is possible that the SPA arrives earlier, I am setting my own expectations for the Ides.

Shelf filings
The pulling of the two $50MM common stock filings still are in process with Provectus’ attorneys. Management believes the act of pulling them is form over substance, since the company will not be using them. I think communicating their intended action to pull them and/or the actual act and notification to the market of pulling them is substantive.

The regional license deal for China
Work continues, and the process of arriving at and consummating a deal progresses. Should Pete travel to China again (he visited there in late-November 2012), it would be to close the deal, the announcement of which should follow via PR and 8-K filing.

In terms of setting my own expectations for this item, a deal could get done by or around late-February. If Celsion's China deal is worth several hundreds of millions of dollars (per the analysts and others commenting on valuation), by comparison I think you're looking at a Provectus China worth at least $1 billion (perhaps as much as $2 billion) with higher upfront, milestone and royalty payments.

India & Japan
As a result of a completed China deal, Provectus’ visibility should be much more pronounced. Deals in India and Japan could follow thereafter, but more of the deal process must progress before I would speculate about timing. India could be accelerate given the level of interest of the top Bio-Pharma players in the country. For now, I’m not setting any expectations.

Moffitt & Reproducibility
Craig expanded in some detail about Moffitt's work in his Noble presentation: their reproduction of his work, his reproduction of their work, their upcoming data release and presentation(s), etc. According to Craig, Moffitt's immunological MOA characterization work results (mouse and human) will be revealed imminently. I think Craig's comments related to reproducibility, particularly in the context of creating and making a product (i.e., PV-10, PH-10), were very important and very true.

I think it is easy, at this point, to connect the dots so as to speculate (identify) about which conference Moffitt will present their highly anticipated results. I still expect forthcoming visibility about these Moffitt results in late-January, and some data released in stages in March, prior to the full dataset being released at the expected conference in early-April.

More valuation-raising work to be done
When I wrote my blog post entitled $PVCT: Immunologic Potential, and thus Value, I set a very lofty valuation for the company, particularly as it related to the expectation of management for an upfront payment ($3 billion at last check) at the end-game. You don't get from $67.65 million (Google Finance's market capitalization for the company as at 1/25/13) to $3 billion in one leap.

Rather, Provectus arrives there in several leaps and bounds, together with perhaps some end-game auctioning momentum and exuberance: China, India, Dermatology, momentum share buying, etc.

Peer-based management compensation proposal coming
As management noted in a previous filing, a peer company-based bonus compensation structure should be part of a new compensation plan that management should introduce with Provectus' next proxy filing likely in late-April.

PH-10
From a review of history, it appeared Provectus was on the cusp of securing a deal to license its dermatology business (i.e., inflammatory skin disorders) in early-2011. Up to that point, management's valuation expectations, on a net present value (NPV) basis, were about $500 million.

No term sheet materialized from the most serious prospective partner, which would have triggered the official hiring of the financial adviser (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) and an auction process involving the other prospective partners. I think the lack of certain desired information at the time, since fulfilled by the Psoriasis Phase 2c trial, created a valuation gap between the prospective lead and Provectus that prevented the parties from coming together on suitable top-line term sheet parameters. Hence, the prospective lead declined to extend a term sheet it knew would be turned down management.

As time progressed (i.e., as the psoriasis Phase 2c trial was completed), a process appears to have been established that paralleled Moffitt's work on PV-10. Namely, a world renowned cancer research center engaged in work, initially at their own expense, to explore and characterize the immunological mechanism of action of Provectus' oncology drug.

In addition to better understanding PH-10 immunologic MOA, and on a related note, more insight into the drug's distinct lack of toxicity is necessary to better inform the FDA and assist in the design of the eventual Phase 3 trial.

It is not unreasonable to analogize PV-10's path to PH-10's, and thus potentially explain the delay in getting to a dermatology license or sale transaction. Immunologic mechanism of action characterization work is being done on PH-10 by a world-class institution to complete the understanding of certain prospective dermatology licensees before they fully commit to jumping into the pool. I think management's NPV figure for the dermatology business has increased significantly to at least $750 million (perhaps as much as $1 billion).

As for expectations, Craig did note in his Noble Presentation that we should look for the company to request a end-of-Phase-II (EOP2) meeting with the FDA. Presumably this announcement, if one is made by the company, or step precedes or signals the extension of a term sheet for dermatology is imminent, inbound or at least very close at hand.

$PVCT: Get Shorty (Update)

Short interest at 1/15/13 (964K) increased by ~26% over 12/31/12 (766K), and was last seen two months ago at 11/15/13 (966K), the aftermath of the now terminated PVCTP “IPO,” and three-and-half months ago at 9/28/12 (959K), the beginning of the “IPO” chaos.

I am a little surprised, yet perhaps not surprised, by the uptick in short interest. I can understand why it is happening. There probably is some modest shorting of the stock (why one would short a penny stock mystifies me at a very low level; it's like rubber necking in some regard), say a couple of hundred thousand shares, because of the share price run-up through January 11. It also could be the balance of the short interest, above the historically innocuous 400-500K level, is related to the continued conversion of the preferred shares (hundreds of thousands of shares?) by funds like Revelation and others.

These funds probably have sold more of their since-converted-into-common shares earlier in the month and late last month (as they look to complete their departure from the stock) when buyers from two locales (one domestic, one international) bought shares. They probably also further knocked the share price down to current levels, which were of course last seen before the late-December/early-January share price run-up.

Despite management’s efforts to bring so-called “serious” life sciences investors into the stock, these folks remain firmly on the sidelines. I appreciate Peter’s tenacity and persistence.

What will it take to bring the life sciences folks in and the generalist funds in and/or back? A little more time: say, a month or two.

For the former, it is looking more and more like what is necessary is the revelation of the highly anticipated Moffitt data (combined with profound statements like “…the nearest thing to a cure for cancer we’ve seen.”) A China regional oncology deal and the SPA will of course help a lot, too. Ironically, both of these should arrive [very] roughly around the same time as Moffitt’s data, conclusions and declarative statements begin to be and are fully unveiled.

For the latter, it will take more mass awareness and an upward moving share price whose momentum-based vortex subsequently draws these investor types into and back into the stock.

$PVCT: And Behind Door #4...

What was Craig saying when he showed this slide during his Noble presentation?

I think the current guidance of an SPA receipt sometime in Q1 remains. The start of the MM Phase III trial is, of course, a function of the receipt of the SPA; that is, the trial should commence about 30 days (maybe less) after an SPA PR.

$PVCT: Investor Relations On-The-Go

Provectus issued a PR today announcing the availability of a smartphone and tablet investor relations app.

My first thought, after reading the title of the PR and before downloading/exploring the app, was a mixture of mild panic and frustration: "Oh no, more s@$#% from Porter, LeVay & Rose." PLR is Provectus' investor relations-public relations (IR-PR) firm.

PLR serves two masters: the one that pay the bills (that would be Provectus) and the ones with whom PLR socializes, plays nice with and kisses up to in order to stay relevant (that would be the investment funds).

After diving deeper (and now thoroughly relieved PLR had nothing to do with it), I found the app to be nice, clean, useful and interesting.

The company that produced the app, TheIRapp, partnered with PR Newswire to provide "...publicly traded companies the ability to have their own mobile investor relations (IR) app to optimize and share their IR content more broadly with investors."

Some companies using their own version of an IR app are below.

$PVCT: Provectus to Present Data on PV-10 at the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting in April 2013

Provectus issued a PR yesterday announcing the acceptance of Craig et al.'s poster presentation -- Combination of PV-10 immuno-chemoablation and systemic anti-CTLA-4 antibody therapy in murine models of melanoma -- at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting in April 2013 in Washington, D.C.

Management checked with AACR to see what they could and could not say about the abstract and work in the PR. Provectus, at this point, is allowed to say (i) the abstract is accepted and (ii) the title. They cannot release data until the embargo is lifted, which will be in stages and does not start until sometime in March.

As Craig mentioned during his presentation at the Noble Financial Capital Markets Ninth Annual Equity Conference (click the preceding link to view it) around about minute 14:00, there is very significant interest to see how PV-10 works with systemic treatments (e.g., chemotherapy, immunotherapy, etc.), because it has become clear these secondary treatments work better after an initial use or application of PV-10.

You may recall from my post Provectus Pharmaceuticals Announces H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center Initiates Phase 1 Study of PV-10 to Elucidate Bystander Effect the notion of PV-10 making cancer treatment more effective in combination with other therapies also is important (very, actually); particularly for late stage patients (a group not targeted by Provectus' current registration pathway for PV-10, which is to facilitate the treatment of Stage III and early-Stage IV patients) and those with heavy tumor burden.

Craig et al.'s work announced today -- the combination of PV-10 and systemic anti-CTLA-4 antibody therapy -- clearly targets and is in response to serious interest from Big Pharma: Bristol-Myers Squibb & ipilimumab/Yervoy and Pfizer/MedImmune-AstraZeneca & tremelimumab (MedImmune in-licensed tremi from Pfizer in 2011 for global development rights to the drug while Pfizer retained rights to specified types of combination therapies).

PV-10 + systemic chemotherapy: Craig etl al.'s murine work -- Generation of an antitumor response and immunity using a small molecule drug (PV-10) -- at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) 27th Annual Meeting on October 26 and 27, 2012 in North Bethesda, Maryland explored time to progression and tumor growth from PV-10 alone, 2 cycles of 5-FU, PV-10 and 2 cycles of 5-FU, and a saline control. Provectus concluded co-administration of PV-10 immuno-chemoablation with other systemic therapy, in this case, 5-FU, can yield potent synergy in uninjected tumors (Combination of PV-10 with systemic chemotherapy can yield synergistic benefit in untreated tumors supportive of ongoing clinical work; f/n: A study to assess PV-10 chemoablation of cancer of the liver; clinical trial NCT00986661). PV-10 did not interfere with the systemic chemotherapy agent, nor did it create or cause a toxic reaction. In fact, by boosting the immune system, PV-10 allowed the chemo agent to perform better.

PV-10 + radiotherapy: Foote et al.'s initial and ongoing work combining PV-10 and radiotherapy are showing dramatic improvement for patients with much later stage disease (Stage IV) and heavy tumor burden. At least 10 patients have been treated, a follow-up to the success of their initial work on 3 patients.

PV-10 + systemic immunotherapy: As I wrote earlier, there is very significant interest to see how PV-10 works with ipilimumab (an anti-CTLA-4 agent). Because ipi is human-specific, Craig used a mouse anti-CTLA-4 antibody. Craig et al.'s work is a necessary pre-cursor to human trials (one cannot simply run such experiments without sufficient data to show the FDA how the combination might work and that it is safe). This mouse study will be used to convince regulators that Provectus should be allowed to run a Phase 1 trial combining PV-10 and ipi (as Craig mentioned at the Noble conference).

Click to enlarge figure.

Other combinations: As a treatment PV-10 lies in the "sweet spot" of the addressable market of patients afflicted with melanoma that comprises the vast majority of patients. Patients with very late stage disease and/or very heavy tumor burden, depending on whose numbers you use, probably comprises 2-5%. Nevertheless, as with today's announcement that heralds the successful demonstration of PV-10 and a systemic immunotherapeutic agent (as with the company's SITC-presented earlier work that successfully demonstrated the combination of PV-10 and a systemic chemotherapeutic agent) Provectus is seeking further combinations to make very late stage disease patient treatment options better (e.g., intra-tumoral GM-CSF, systemic interleukin, anti-PD-1 antibodies/agents, etc.).

Today's PR is not related to the anticipated Moffitt immunological MOA characterization work (mouse & human) that will be presented later this year at a high profile conference like AACR. Moffitt presumably will notify Provectus if the cancer center's abstract(s) has (have) been accepted. Then, management will work with Moffitt to coordinate news flow.

$PVCT: Noble Financial Capital Markets Ninth Annual Equity Conference (update)

A webcast of Craig's presentation is here.

$PVCT: $CLSN? It's Time...

The Conservative Party must make its choice. Every leader is leader only with the support of his party. That is true of me too. That is why I am no longer prepared to tolerate the present situation. In short, it is time to put up or shut up. -- Sir John Major, Former British Prime Minister (c 1995)

Celsion announced today it "had signed a technology development agreement with a Chinese company by the name of Hisun in an effort to manufacture and market its lead-drug candidate better known as ThermoDox in China, Hong Kong and Macau." CLSN, a sub-$250MM market cap company prior to today's announcement, saw its share price increase more than 10%.

A regional oncology deal in China between Provectus and a Chinese Big Pharma company has been in the works for several calendar quarters, the makings of which emerged in the fall. Provectus has, together with its agent, worked through a considerable process of due diligence, evaluation and negotiation to arrive where it is today and where it might be in February.

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical ("Hisun"), Celsion's strategic partner in China, did not appear on a 1Q2011 list of the top listed local (Chinese) pharmaceutical companies according to market capitalization.

Celsion's two-pronged agreement with Hisun deal break down this way (source: Roth Capital Partners):

• Part 1: Hisun pays Celsion $10 million divided into two parts:
• $5 million immediately as a technology development agreement with Hisun to further advance Hisun's manufacturing initiatives for ThermoDox, and
• $5 million to be paid (following Chinese regulatory approval) where Hisun pays for a 60-day exclusive option to sign a commercialization agreement with Celsion for China (including Hong Kong and Macau).

• Part 2: Pending positive HEAT Phase III data:
• A $25 million non-refundable upfront payment, less the $10 million paid in Part 1 of the agreement.
• $55 million in upfront and regulatory milestone payments, which if HEAT is successful, are anticipated to be received over the next 18 months.
• $45 million in sales milestone payments
• Escalating double-digit royalty payments on net sales of ThermoDox in China projected to top out in the mid-20% range.

Twitter awareness, discussion, excitement and skepticism of the Celsion-Hisun deal was prolific today. This story still has to play itself out.

Provectus' potential China deal appears to compare very favorably to Celsion's, not the least of which is all of Provectus' potential strategic partners are on the above list.

Provectus management is keenly aware of the critical importance of closing a good to great deal transaction of the scope, size and scale currently being contemplated in China: a much higher share price, greater market credibility, more funding resources for key and pivotal trials, and an increased market capitalization in the direction of management's end-game valuation expectations.

Follow China by deals of comparable scope, size and scale in India and Japan (as Craig communicated in his Noble presentation today), and the perception, conversation, and seriousness of Provectus' situation changes immediately, immensely and very dramatically: "Champagne would fall from the heavens. Doors would open. Velvet robes would part."

$PVCT: Noble Financial Capital Markets Ninth Annual Equity Conference (update)

Provectus released Craig's conference slides today. See here.

This slide (below) highlights what to potentially or possibly look out for this month and quarter. It also appears to confirm the rumor another Big Pharma company approached the company with interest in a global license for PV-10.

This slide (below) highlights several very under-appreciated aspects of the new rose bengal synthesis patent application and process.

$PVCT: A Contrarian Indicator?

The post below was written last week by SG, a long-time poster on the Silicon Investor PVCT chat board.

Click to enlarge figure.

He first started contributing to the board in May 2006, noting his buys around that time (1st orange oval), perhaps in the $1.50-2.00 per share range. SG later wrote about his buys when the stock made an all-time high (intraday: $3.05, closing: $3.00) in September 2007 (2nd orange oval), perhaps in the $2.50-3.00 per share range.

Click to enlarge figure.

Last week, after holding Provectus shares for about 6.7 years, SG wrote he sold all but a 1,000 shares, perhaps in the $0.55-0.60 per share range (blue arrow), several cents above the stock's all-time closing low ($0.52). The intraday low was $0.43.

In reading his post, I was struck by its similarity to the magazine cover indicator, "which says that the cover story on the major business magazines, particularly BusinessWeek, Forbes and Fortune in the United States is often a contrary indicator."

Technical analysts often talk about a market washout -- a large share price plunge on above-average volume -- that clear the markets of bearish sentiment and help mark the/a major bottom.

It's quite possible Provectus' bottom, either in share price or market irrelevance or both, was quietly, perhaps a tad ignominiously, and most irrelevantly marked by the departure of SG, a retail investor who believed at one time but believed no more.

But no one really knows in the moment that a contrarian indicator (or any indicator for that matter) is indeed an indicator. With the benefit of hindsight, it always is.

Management has set several expectations for a busy calendar quarter (1Q13) that should have positive impacts on the share price. Let's see how the rest of this month and February shape up in that regard.

Click to enlarge figure.

I continue to perform due-diligence with KOLs relative to Provectus' value proposition, and will have more to share on that topic in due course.

$PVCT: Al Smith & Marwood Group

$PVCT: Noble Financial Capital Markets Ninth Annual Equity Conference

Management will be presenting at the above conference on January 22.