May 31, 2013

$PVCT's PV-10: Resistance is Futile

GSK gets 2 cancer pills approved, but a deeper question is left unanswered, by Marc Iskowitz at Medical Marketing & Media (italicized quotes below, without attribution, are from the above article).

Before we excessively hail the arrival of GlaxoSmithKline's Tafinlar (dabrafenib) and Mekinist (trametinib), let's be thoughtful about their approval tells us (or, frankly, does not).

"Two targeted cancer pills that received the FDA's nod yesterday offer physicians another set of weapons to fight the disease. They also highlight a difficulty that has plagued recent advances—the body's resistance to personalized drugs."

"The approvals add to the excitement going into the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting, which gets under way tomorrow in Chicago. However, they also underscore a difficulty. As drug makers advance in identifying targeted therapies for particular biomarker segments, in many cases where they've developed such a treatment, the cancer comes back months later."

A tumor's core is an anaerobic necrotic area where more dangerous cancer cells reside, compared to the outer layers and exterior of the tumor where cancerous cells are less abnormal and virulent. Standard chemotherapy or radiation kills the "easy" cancerous targets on the periphery of the tumor. The "hard" targets in the anaerobic core are difficult for drugs and radiation to destroy. A very Darwinian natural selection process occurs. The more hardy and vicious variants in the core survive, feeding off of and expanding into the room provided by the destruction of the easier-to-kill cancer cells at the periphery. Tumors re-occur and the next generation of them is drug- and radiation-resistant, having selected for the more virulent population. If you miss with the first round, everything is made worse for the patient.

"Scientists are realizing that “targeted therapies do not lead to long-term tumor control,” said Richard Wagner, PhD, a VP at Kantar Health. “This is a problem that shadows progress.” One example is Zelboraf, the drug approved in 2011 which targets the roughly 50% of melanoma patients whose tumors carry the BRAF gene mutation. In virtually all of these patients, the tumor starts to progress again in about five months."

The historic and current work on cancer vaccines faces the challenge of not being strong enough to generate an adequate immune response. Like with failed chemotherapy or radiation, where the treatment miss makes everything worse for the patient, vaccines are inducing tolerance by repeated exposure to antigens, convincing the immune not to react to tumor-associated antigens.


"But trying to find ways to prevent the development of resistance with targeted therapies has become another front in the war on cancer. It's also among the reasons why there is so much excitement about the immuno-oncology agents from BMS (nivolumab), Merck (MK-3475) and Roche (MPDL3280) that offer a third approach to treating the disease, beyond targeted therapies and conventional chemotherapy."

So, the industry is getting there. Slowly. Recall Craig et al.'s conclusion at SITC:




PV-10 in situ vaccination. Let the the antigen presenting cells (APCs) pick the antigen, rather than the other way around (as others are doing) and kill the tumor in situ. Let the APCs do their job and present antigens to T cells.

To Moffitt, PV-10 is the pathway to a more potent (i.e., generates a much stronger immune response), more effective (i.e., it heals, it cures), more broad (i.e., multi-indication) cancer vaccine.


Moffitt, however, through their focus on adoptive T cell immunotherapy, believes PV-10 induces better T cells, and thus T cell activation for very specific tumor targeting. Moffitt's AACR poster concluded PV-10 induced a systemic anti-tumor immune response in murine models of melanoma and breast cancer. Moffitt has concluded the same, through its murine work, in lung cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer and liver cancer.


(Source withheld, 2009) There have been well documented but exceedingly rare cases of spontaneous or post-infection remissions in melanoma that appear to be immunologically mediated. There is a correlation between treatment-associated autoimmune depigmentation, or vitiligo, and favorable melanoma outcomes. Regression of uninjected melanoma modules after intralesional BCG therapy had been demonstrated.

Results with conventional therapy for metastatic melanoma up to that point remained poor. Melanoma patients at high risk of recurrence are readily identifiable. Tumor-induced immunosuppression increases with tumor burden. Immunotherapy should be more effective the earlier it is applied. 

But there are major obstacles to overcome: patient heterogeneity (variable outcomes for patients within similar stages, HLA haplotype differences), tumor antigenic heterogeneity (not all tumors express the same antigens), antigen loss (most immunogenic proteins are not essential to survival), tumor-induced immunosuppression, and the length of time needed for an immune response.


A weak or partial immune response to the tumor selects for more virulent tumor cells to survive, akin to antibiotic resistance in microbial infections. Vaccines are inducing “tolerance” by repeated exposure to antigen, convincing the immune system not to react to tumor-associated antigens and/or stimulating the generation of “suppressor” cells.

Tumor heterogeneity is a critical problem. In any given cell there are, say, 15,000 unique mRNAs at any given second. A few seconds later, illustratively, 15,000 new ones. There are, for example, at least 15,000 to 20,000 unique proteins on a membrane surface at any one time. These change continuously. Does picking one of them to form the basis of a cancer vaccine make sense? Does targeting a specific antigen as a holistic solution make sense?

Heterogeneity is so wide, trying to target a specific antigen might be tough if not hopeless task. A needle in a haystack? Maybe a needle in an entire whole galaxy.

Treating as many tumors as you can with PV-10 intratumorally achieves two significant positive outcomes. First, you lower the patient's overall tumor burden so as to allow the immune system to work better. Second, you allow more of the heterogeneous antigens (from the injected heterogeneous tumor) to be seen by the immune system. The more tumors treated by PV-10 the better.


"Speaking as part of a panel assembled by Kantar Health, King said that what he thinks is compelling about the experimental agents is the "ability to get treated for a year and walk away for three to five years.""

PV-10 is displaying impressive durable response in patients. Recall, via Provectus News, management informed shareholders and others about a Practical Dermatology article on PV-10 that included comments from principal investigator Dr. Sanjiv Agarwala, MD: "Since those data were first reported, “There are now data for longer follow-up periods that show those initial results are holding up,” says Sanjiv S. Agarwala, MD, Professor of Medicine at Temple University School of Medicine in Philadelphia and Chief, Oncology & Hematology at St. Luke’s Cancer Center in Bethlehem, PA."

As a monotherapy, clinicians want to use PV-10 before surgery when the immune system is not, moderately or less severely compromised, by itself after surgery too, and in very late stage disease patients with other agents when the immune system is overwhelmed and severely compromised.

PV-10 has a very good answer for this deeper question that other agents, including CTLA-4, PD-1, PDL-1 and OXO-40, have yet to answer as well.

May 30, 2013

ASCO 2013 Immunotherapy Highlights Covered by $PVCT-$PFE's Combination Therapy Patent Application

Sally Church, writer of the Pharma Strategy Blog, notes ASCO 2013 will bring new data on immunotherapy agents called checkpoint regulatory inhibitors.


All of these groups of compounds are covered by Provectus' joint patent application with Pfizer for the combination of PV-10 and other therapies. All of the above drugs have been combined with PV-10 by Moffitt.

More Drugs to Help BRAF Melanoma Patients

Two new GSK oral oncology treatments, BRAF-inhibitor Tafinlar® (dabrafenib) capsules and the first MEK-inhibitor Mekinist™ (trametinib) tablets, approved by FDA as single-agent therapies.

Glaxo Wins FDA Approval for Two Targeted Skin Cancer Drugs "The Food and Drug Administration today approved Tafinlar and Mekinist for patients with melanoma, the most dangerous form of skin cancer, that has spread or can’t be surgically removed. The drugs are aimed at patients who have certain gene mutations that need to be detected using a diagnostic test made by Marcy L’Etoile, France-based BioMerieux (BIM), which the FDA also cleared."

"Tafinlar may produce $279 million in sales in 2016 while Mekinist may generate $343 million, according to the average of eight analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg."

A relatively small, unmet need marginally less unmet: BRAF, unresectable, very late stage. A small addressable market still desperately in need of better solutions than these two drugs.

dabrafenib (TAFINLAR)


May 29, 2013

$PVCT Synthesis Patent Approval Implications

There are several very positive implications to the company receiving approval for its global synthesis patent, including:
  • Patent protection for PV-10 through 2031 (beyond the protections afforded by orphan drug status),
  • The acceptance of the manufacturing process, which improves the synthesis of the drug, by all global regulatory bodies (e.g., US, EU, China, Japan, India, etc.),
  • A synthesis process that prevents PV-10 from being replicated, and
  • Intellectual property coverage of all halogenated xanthenes, about 20 compounds including rose bengal, so there will be a PV-12, PV-14, etc. and, thus, a drug technology platform for treating cancer in the future and as a follow-up act to PV-10.

$PVCT Patent Approved: Process for the Synthesis of 4,5,6,7-tetrachloro-3',6'-dihydroxy-2',4',5',7'-tetraiodo-3H-spiro[isoben- zofuran-1,9'-xanthen]-3-one (Rose Bengal) and Related Xanthenes


Provectus' synthesis patent application was approved. See here to read the patent from the World Intellectual Property Organization.

LIVESTRONG® Foundation CEO Talks About Melanoma for Melanoma Awareness Month




May 27, 2013

$PVCT's Regulatory Clarity And Commercial Validation Pathways


Provectus has reached the point where it can and must gain regulatory clarity and achieve commercial validation, and it seems to be on the cusp of doing both.

Regulatory clarity means (a) agreeing to a special protocol assessment (SPA) with the FDA to conduct the pivotal MM Phase 3 trial and, potentially, (b) achieving the FDA's breakthrough therapy designation whereby Provectus might (b1) secure accelerated approval and run a Phase 4 trial or post-marketing study or (b2) just run a truncated Phase 3 trial designed around the aforementioned SPA. This is the "exit," or path to approval, that both Big Pharma and life sciences investors require to know.  "What is Provectus' exit before I enter." Investors should begin to buy after regulatory clarity is transparent, although some still may wait for commercial validation. Big Pharma should seek a global license for PV-10 or to acquire Provectus after an interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial is available, whether the trial is a truncated (BTD) or fuller (SPA) study.

Commercial validation means licensing PV-10 in (x1) China, (x2) India and/or (x3) Japan, (y) entering into a global license for PH-10 and/or (z) entering into a global license for PV-10. Assuming regulatory clarity finally is transparent, and it's hard not to think prospective partners also are waiting for transparency too, there would be no reason(s) left for life sciences investors to remain on the sidelines.

∙∙∙∙∙     ∙∙∙∙∙     ∙∙∙∙∙

It will be interesting to see how the month of June plays out. Should the SPA be announced, the bottom branch of the tree in the illustration above is germane. Thus, one aspect of regulatory clarity is attained. Complimentary to this would be signing an MOU for China. Thus, again, one aspect of commercial validation is attained.

I think, at this point, a perspective on Provectus cash on hand and inbound cash becomes important. The company's cash balance -- publicly, last, was about $5MM as at March -- is what it is or will be when either of both the SPA and MOU arrive at whenever point(s) in June.

Should Provectus sign the MOU in June, my experience would suggest (my guesstimate is) definitive agreements (contractual arrangements) between the parties, and thus funding of the upfront payment, occurs 30-90 days later (i.e., July-September). So, perhaps, $20-30MM arrives in September. MOU milestone payments for such things like the SPA, BTD, BTD specifics and drug approvals would come, by virtue of completing the documents, immediately after said documents were struck and signed, even though some of these milestones could be achieved before such.

The stock price should rise with the SPA and MOU, but it's possible Provectus would not tap either Network 1 or Lincoln Park for cash to maintain BDO's opinion until the upfront payment from the regional deal arrives. Evidence of monetization (commercial validation) like the MOU with Hisun-Pfizer should trigger significant warrant exercise activity (i.e., at least $5 MM) and therefore any financing for BDO purposes would not be necessary.

Fly Me To The Moon

May 26, 2013

$PVCT Blog Reader Question/Request

Thanks for coming up with "Connecting the Dots." I've had an investment in PVCT since 2010, so I am quite a bit underwater now, at least on my first tranche.  I was about to take my losses and move on when I came upon your blog. You are a great source of information about the company, so I decided to hold a bit longer.  Your blogs around the time of the IPO fiasco actually enabled me to enter a second tranche at a very nice price and recover some losses from the first. To date I have not sold any PVCT stock, but I am leaning toward turning part of my holdings into a trading account. The reason I am contemplating this is because of the trading range of the stock over the last few months. It does not seem to be able to break through the .75 mark no matter how good the news is. I believe the reason for this is succinctly stated in the subject Wharton magazine blog, which was referenced in an Adam Feuerstein tweet a couple of days ago. I would appreciate it if you would read the Sable blog and give your opinion as to whether PVCT is stuck in the same kind of "poor capital structure" that limits its share price and accounts for the high number of PVCT shorts.
The article the blog reader references is The Curse of the Poor Capital Structure by David Sable, W’81, M’86, Portfolio Manager, Special Situations Life Sciences Fund; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University. "Our author explores black-hole capital structures that drag down company share prices to the benefit of hedging portfolio managers."

Provectus suffers from the same or similar kind of capital structure that limits its share price, but I do not think one can explain the share price dilemma, that it cannot break through 75 cents (or that, more generally speaking, it is depressed) exclusively with Sable's capital structure comments.

Among them...

The company is an OTC stock. That does not help. Presence on a major stock exchange will of course be most welcome. And this will change.

Provectus' low profile -- which, in truth, probably allowed management to scoop Bristol Myers and several others by jointly patenting with Pfizer the combination of PV-10 with anti-CTLA-4, anti-PD-1 and anti-PDL-1 agents, among others classes of compounds (notably before such combinations were in vogue) -- has made it difficult for greater awareness to build around the stock. For example, the professor, his investigative dermatology laboratory and university conducting PH-10's mechanism of action and examining the drug's unique lack of toxicity remains labeled by the company as recently as the CEO letter/annual shareholder update as "...a leading research facility..." This professor is very well known by the FDA and the medical community (particularly key opinion leaders of which he is one).  And this will change.

Some market participants expect another dramatic round of dilution to fund the contemplated SPA MM Phase 3 trial. The consensus belief is Provectus needs upwards or $25 million or more to run the trial. Management budgets the expenditure closer to $15 million or less.  And this may not happen from the perspective of which or what scenario plays out vis a vis regulatory clarity and path to approval.

There may be another near-term raise of money via Network 1 to maintain accounting firm's BDO's going concern opinion until regularity clarity is transparent and commercial validation is achieved. Having about $5MM in cash at March, Provectus is burning about $1MM in cash per month. It is possible another N1 placement, together with likely expensive warrant coverage, may be undertaken in June, or shortly after quarter-end (i.e., early- to mid-July). As such, there may be shorting in advance of this further but minor dilution, or a reluctance to buy until transacted. And while there is no certainty this fund raising will occur should events in June raise the share price sufficiently for either Lincoln Park's warrantless equity line of credit to be drawn down or a portion of the shelf to be used at much higher share price levels, it is nevertheless a possibility.

Most importantly, there has been no buying from life sciences investors, firms and funds because there is need for regulatory clarity (e.g., SPA, BTD-AA, BTD-truncated P3) and, additionally for some of them, commercial validation (e.g., regional license deal(s), PH-10 deal, global license deal). Regulatory clarity is necessary because these life sciences investors will not invest until they understand the "exit," PV-10's drug approval path. Commercial validation inevitably presents the market with proof that someone or something is desirous of the compound. For example, with regard to regulatory clarity I think (speculate) Provectus has officially submitted its requests/applications for the SPA and breakthrough therapy designation, perhaps in early-May. For commercial validation I think (speculate) the company is close to consummating an MOU for China, perhaps by early- or mid-June.

News of material progress on the fronts of regulatory clarity and commercial validation will cure the share price malaise. The news expected to come should be vastly more than sufficient to breakthrough the 75 cent level and well beyond.

So, while Sable's capital structure perspective is germane and understood, it should become largely irrelevant or immaterial at the point in time Provectus announces, say, an SPA and a regional license deal in China.

As for Sable, his concluding statement is obvious: "This should be preventable. The five-year duration is an industry standard for no obvious reason. Limiting the duration of warrants to six or 12 months would remove this unintended derivatization of the company’s stock."

It's also not particularly insightful, both from the limited perspective from which he proffers it and basic statistics.

Folks like him suffer from Golden Rule-itis. I know. I did too.

The Golden Rule is "those who have the gold make the rules." I'm not talking about the real Golden Rule that "one should treat others as one would like others to treat oneself." I'm referring to the Wall Street-hedge fund-investment management version.

It doesn't look like Sable has been involved, as a principal, in raising money, either for a fund or a corporation/company.


If you've only invested (i.e., you have the gold), it is difficult (at times, very) to appreciate being on the other side of the table asking for it. Try raising money. Try asking for the gold. It changes your perspective. A lot. I have been asked for gold. I also have asked for it.

Now, try raising money at terms better than everyone else (i.e., greater than extrinsic value, company friendly warrant coverage, etc.). By definition, the far right hand side of the bell curve (i.e., two and three sigma) will be/are successful -- they will raise money at better or much better terms than the population of those raising money -- for both substantive and stylistic reasons and attributes.

As you move left, you approach the region around the mean, where most folks find themselves able to raise money at average or so-called "industry standard terms."

Moving further left, they're less or much less successful. Sometimes, they fail all together.

Chinese pharma companies look West

I found this recent China Daily article about Chinese pharmaceutical companies and their partnerships with multinational pharmaceutical companies interesting.

"Hisun got a breakthrough in China's pharmaceutical industry by taking a controlling stake in the joint venture with Pfizer, the world's largest drug-maker by sales. Hisun has a 51 percent share in Hisun-Pfizer Pharmaceuticals Co, with a total investment of $295 million and registered capital of $250 million. Pfizer holds the remaining stock..."The negotiations (between Hisun and Pfizer) took more than a year. It's really tough with rounds and rounds of bargains and discussions. We got stuck on the controlling stake," said a senior executive of Hisun, speaking anonymously."

Provectus' process to consummate a regional license deal in China has been informative. It think its nearing its end.

May 25, 2013

$PVCT Randomness: Market Capitalization Per Full-Time Employee



@adamfeuerstein: What Wall Street's Watching at ASCO (The Burrill Report)

This podcast, featuring Adam Feuerstein, senior columnist for TheStreet.com, is worth hearing. Click on this link: The Burrill Report (May 28, 2013): What Wall Street's Watching at ASCO.

Notes:
  • ASCO 2013 likely will be about so-called "second generation" immunotherapies: anti-PD-1 and anti-PDL-1 agents. Ipilimumab (and, I suppose, vemurafenib) were/are first generation,
  • Combination therapies, like ipi + nivo (both Bristol-Meyers drugs), have potential utility if/because you get synergism,
  • Cancer disguises itself or is cloaked from the immune system? Craig's view (when treating cancer like an infectious disease) is the immune system is overwhelmed by cancer, not hidden or disguised from it. I don't think this is a semantic difference. Uncloaking, better distinguishing, etc. suggest artificial solutions or constructs.
  • Key abstracts include Amgen's T-Vec.
Anything positive about T-Vec enhances the view the pharmaceutical industry has about intralesional agents in general.  So, we all should root for T-Vec. That said, if Amgen's compound bombs, the view still remains that intralesional agents are back, and PV-10 is the leader of the pack.

May 24, 2013

$PVCT's Process for the Synthesis of 4,5,6,7-tetrachloro-3',6'-dihydroxy-2',4',5',7'-tetraiodo-3H-spiro[isoben- zofuran-1,9'-xanthen]-3-one (Rose Bengal) and Related Xanthenes

Provectus' synthesis patent application, which essentially is a near-composition of matter one, is very important for several reasons. Among them, the concentration of rose bengal could be increased in
solution, if this was necessary and appropriate, without increasing the purity of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (because the company's new manufacturing process greatly reduces the variable level of impurities). I expect positive news on this item in 2013.

$PVCT: Expected Peer-reviewed PV-10 Publications


From what I gather, the following peer-reviewed articles should be published in 2013:
  • Moffitt murine model data -- Q3 and
  • Full MM Phase 2 trial results (Provectus & PIs) -- Q3/Q4.
One or more of the following also could be in peer-reviewed publications this year:

    May 23, 2013

    $PVCT's PV-10 Verified, Translated, Elucidated and Optimized by Moffitt

    When Provectus issued a PR in January 2013 about Moffitt's Phase 1 feasibility study to elucidate PV-10's bystander effect, Moffitt's Dr. Amod Sarnaik, MD was quoted as "We look forward to verifying the promising pre-clinical data from our ongoing work in this translational study. These results should help elucidate the immunologic basis of the 'bystander effect' noted in previous clinical studies of PV-10 and help optimize PV-10 treatment, particularly in combination with other therapies. As Moffitt pursues its mission of contributing to the prevention and cure of cancer, we are pleased to spearhead this important clinical work."

    It appears this work has been completed, preliminary results or interim analysis are available, the bystander effect has been elucidated, and Moffitt already has moved on to combining PV-10 with other notable categories of treatments, such as immunotherapies (i.e., anti-CTLA-4, anti-PD-1 and anti-PDL-1 agents).

    Moffitt and, more specifically, Dr. Weber, are critical and key to PV-10 and Provectus, having been notably involved in translational studies and other work contributing greatly to the approvals of, among other treatments and therapies, ipilimumab (Yervoy) and vemurafenib (Zelboraf).

    Awareness of $PVCT is clearly growing

    Provectus' media/communications profile has resulted in this blog being more closely associated with the company, PV-10 and their digital brand. Google "Provectus Pharmaceuticals" and the blog shows up in the top 10 search results returned. Most searches with Provectus + [another word related to oncology or dermatology] may well result in a list that includes one or more blog posts. Thus, tracking unique visitors to the blog, I think, might be a decent proxy for tracking awareness of the company.

    At the blog's first anniversary, readership statistics were:


    After only 6 months following that date (November 16) -- that is, November 17, 2012 to May 16, 2013 -- readership statistics like unique visitors are nearly the same. Blog readership over the last 6 months has nearly matched readership over the blog's first 12 months.


    The point I wish to make here is that while the share price has lagged, awareness of Provectus and PV-10 (measured through unique visitors to this blog) has steadily grown.

    The "Immuno-Oncology" Market That Encompasses $PVCT & PV-10

    On May 15, a Wall Street Journal article highlighted middle market investment bank Leerink Swann's of immuno-oncology addressable market as an annual $20 billion figure. A week later, Citigroup analyst Andrew Baum was quoted by Reuters sizing the market as $35 billion a year over the next 10 years for, where this category of drugs would be used in some way in the management of up to 60% of all cancers. I think the immuno-oncology category includes immuntherapies broadly, but it's possible the above estimates are inclusive only of anti-CTLA-4, anti-PD1 and anti-PDL-1 (and the like) agents.

    $PVCT's PV-10: Update on an Emerging Melanoma Therapy


    Via Provectus News, management informed shareholders and others about a Practical Dermatology article on PV-10 that included comments from principal investigator Dr. Sanjiv Agarwala, MD.

    #1. Since those data were first reported, “There are now data for longer follow-up periods that show those initial results are holding up,” says Sanjiv S. Agarwala, MD, Professor of Medicine at Temple University School of Medicine in Philadelphia and Chief, Oncology & Hematology at St. Luke’s Cancer Center in Bethlehem, PA.

    In Dr. Agarwala's poster presentation at ESMO 2012 in October, two key results were:
    • Analysis of temporal data showed that Stage III subjects also experienced significantly greater mean Progression Free Survival (PFS) of at least 9.7 months, versus 3.1 months for Stage IV subjects (median PFS for Stage III subjects was not reached during the 12-month study interval); and
    • Overall survival (OS) data were also presented by disease stage, with Stage III subjects achieving a mean overall survival of at least 12.6 months (median not reached during the study interval) versus 7.3 months for Stage IV subjects.
    Dr. Agarwala appears to be commenting on data subsequent to that tabulated for and presented at ESMO, which he would have obtained from Eric this year for the Practical Dermatology article. Are PFS and OS results now longer? The question immunotherapies like PV-10 face is the durability (length) of the immune response they engender. From anecdotal comments, it seems industry folks wonder whether such immunotherapy responses last beyond (are durable for more than) 6-8 months. More and specific MM Phase 2 data will be presented at a Q3 medical conference. While we probably won't get specific data on durability of response (and perhaps updated numbers for PFS and OS) until then, I infer Dr. Agarwala's comments to mean durability of response has gotten better.

    #2. Speaking of MM Phase 2 data, management observed notable local immunologic activity (in addition to systemic or distant immunologic activity), and should report on this significant finding in due course.

    #3. “Right now we consider such a response to be a bonus clinically, and it is not something that the phase III trials will investigate.

    The contemplated MM Phase 3 trial has long been focused on a narrow or focused label for local regional disease control, with no thought of broadening the design or label that would present PV-10 as a systemic agent. The trial design's dosing regimen has been finalized. The application for breakthrough therapy designation is another regulatory path entirely.

    #4. Based on preliminary data, it appears that injection leads to local necrosis and recruitment of immune cells that may lead to a bystander effect,” Dr. Agarwala says. “We don’t have data to show the duration of immunological effects at this time,” he adds.

    Dr. Agarwala appears to affirm preliminary results (interim analysis) of Moffitt's Phase 1 feasibility study are available, and positive.

    #5. "Whereas most chemotherapeutic agents used in the management of melanoma tend to be administered by oncologists, PV-10 injection “is very doable in a dermatologist’s office,” Dr. Agarwala maintains. At some centers, physician assistants and nurse practitioners administer PV-10, a model that can be replicated in dermatology offices."

    I've previously talked about the ease of PV-10 administration as a key piece of the drug's business value proposition. When I spoke to Dr. Agarwala last year, we discussed his experiences with and process of providing PV-10 in an oncology outpatient setting.

    May 22, 2013

    Roth Capital Drops Coverage of $PVCT Due to the Departure of the Equity Analyst

    Dr. Yale Jen, PhD, who had covered the company at Roth Capital, appears to have left the firm. He was brought on board in February 2012 when Roth expanded its healthcare practice. See the cached version of the webpage below.


    Below is the current webpage.


    As a result of Yale's departure, Roth dropped coverage of Provectus.


    I cannot easily find where Dr. Jen currently is work wise.

    I suppose his departure might, in part, be chalked up to his inability to bring business to Roth; that is, unbeing able to convince Provectus (perhaps among others) to engage Roth in investment banking services in exchange for equity research coverage. Or, he may have left for a better opportunity.

    I do not believe Yale had published any notes on Provectus since April 2012.

    $PVCT: Pfizer Visits The Blog, Again


    Same location (NYC).

    $PFE, $MRK: When you can't drive top line, continue to financially engineer the bottom line

    May 22, 2013: "Pfizer said that selling the rest of Zoetis will boost earnings starting in 2014...In April 2012 Pfizer sold its infant nutrition business to Nestle SA for $11.9 billion. The drugmaker has said it plans to use cash from asset sales to aggressively buy back its shares. Last month Pfizer said it had repurchased $6.3 billion of stock this year and was authorized to spend another $5.5 billion on buybacks."

    May 22, 2013: "Under the accelerated share repurchase agreement (ASR), Merck has agreed to repurchase about 99.5 million shares from Goldman Sachs based on current market prices. "We don't have consensus share count post-Q1 earnings to quantify the impact of the accelerated repurchase, but we believe this is a positive sign of Merck attempting to create shareholder value," ISI Group analyst Mark Schoenebaum said in a note to clients. Merck's board had authorized additional purchases of up to $15 billion of its common stock and said that it would buy back about $7.5 billion over the next 12 months. Sales of Merck's asthma drug Singulair plunged 75 percent to $337 million in the first quarter. The pill was Merck's biggest product, with annual sales of $6 billion, before cheaper generics flooded the U.S. market last August. More pain from generics is in store. Merck's Maxalt migraine drug recently lost patent protection and its Temodar brain cancer medicine will soon face cheaper copycats."

    $PVCT: Bristol-Myers Visits The Blog, [Yet] Again


    Bristol-Myers Europe (specifically, France) visited, looking at a blog post I had written about intralesionally-delivered local agents with potential systemic benefits: PV-10, Allovectin-7 and T-Vec (formerly OncoVEX).

    There has been extensive recent media coverage of and discussion about the combination of ipilimumab (Yervoy) with anti-PD-1 (and anti-PDL-1) agents, with Bristol-Myers believed by some to hold the catbird seat when it comes to combining therapies, particularly immunotherapies, together (i.e., ipi + "other stuff").

    You will recall Dr. Weber presented in Paris about combination therapies. He is very enthused about PV-10 as both a monotherapy and a combination therapy. Moffitt currently is conducting murine study work into the combinations of PV-10 and {anti-CTLA-4 agents, anti-PD-1 agents, anti-PDL-1 agents, etc.}.

    May 19, 2013

    I Think it's a Good Time to be a $PVCT Shareholder

    Shareholders are closer to the end-game for the stock than to their journey's beginning. The company's  life sciences technology is head and shoulders above its peers. The lead compound presents a compelling clinical value proposition capable, perhaps, of indeed shifting the paradigm of cancer treatment (and treatment of inflammatory skin disorders). The drug already is productized, with a product business proposition to match that of the underlying technology. Provectus appears to be nearing transparency regarding regulatory clarity for oncology. The company also appears to be nearing certain license deals that will provide initial market validation. In sum, management, Provectus and its shareholders are nearing the end-game.

    Provectus' technology is a game changer, productized to effect the change, and can be delivered and scaled to profit from the change to come.

    The technology, PV-10 for oncology, is an effective local treatment capable of as effectively treating distant disease and visceral metastases. The drug, through expression of antigens in context in tumors into which PV-10 is injected fortifies the immune system against cancerous agents. Immunization occurs because PV-10's chemoablation causes rapid, complete, durable necrosis of tumor lesions.

    "Scientists have been trying for decades to understand why the body's immune system didn't see cancer cells as the enemy and attack them. Recent discoveries revealed that tumors are adept at cloaking themselves by hijacking the body's own mechanism for preventing the system's T-cells, the infection- and disease-fighting cells of the immune system, from running amok against healthy tissue."

    The above quote from Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article New Cancer Drugs Harness Power of Immune System (5/15/13) is not quite on-point. Rather, the quote below from Bloomberg article Human Immune-Boosting Cancer Drugs Seen Extending Lives (5/12/13) is more to the point.

    "Now many believe that by strengthening the immune system’s ability to identify and kill cancer cells, they can broaden the attack so it will fight any dangerous malignancy. “You’re setting up a fair fight” with the disease, said Nils Lonberg, a senior vice president at Bristol-Myers, in a telephone interview. “The immune system is just as adaptable as the cancer.”"

    How do you strengthen the immune system? Medical science has done it before with infectious diseases. Immune systems can be overwhelmed and, thus, are unable to help the human body fight back. Antibiotics themselves do not cure patients of infectious diseases that have afflicted them. Rather, the immune system cures the hosts with the help of antibiotics. Treating infectious diseases requires that antibiotics should have near absolute specificity for the infectious agent. Tough infections require multiple agents.

    I think it's a good time to be a Provectus shareholder.

    The volume of the conversations about immunotherapy has grown much, much louder. Take Xconomy's Luke Timmerman's article Genentech Follows Fast at ASCO as Cancer Immunotherapy Picks Up (5/15/13) for example.

    "Genentech made its name in cancer by creating targeted antibody drugs that zero in on tumor cells while mostly sparing healthy tissue. Now it’s seeking to compete in the next wave of cancer immunotherapies, which are designed to spark the immune system to attack tumors like a virus."

    Or take NBC's Nightly News report Immunotherapy targets cancer cells with remarkable results (5/15/13).

    "Cancer cells typically put up a chemical shield to protect against the body’s disease-fighting T cells. But immunotherapy can break down the shield and let the T cells get to work."

    The more the biopharmaceuticals industry, investing community and general public talk about immunotherapy, the better the environment or atmosphere for PV-10 and Provectus to flourish.

    From the same WSJ article above: "More broadly, Leerink [Swann, a middle market investment bank] believes the "immuno-oncology" drug market could amount to a $20 billion category annually, putting it on a par with the cholesterol-lowering statin market at its height."

    From dendritic cells (Dendreon's Provenge) to antitumor antibodies (Bristol-Myers' anti-CTLA-4 agent Yervoy) to immune checkpoint blockades (ASCO 2013's anti-PD1 and anti-PDL-1 agents):

    "The immunotherapy of cancer has made significant strides in the past few years due to improved understanding of the underlying principles of tumor biology and immunology...[t]he pillars of human cancer therapy have historically been surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, but a fourth modality of immunotherapy has been well documented since 1890..." (Kirkwood et al.).

    Big Pharma is tacking closer to the ultimate goal, but they mostly still are sailing wide of the objective.

    "If the new generation of immune therapies lives up to its promise, “this is going to be a paradigm shift for treating cancer,” said Merck senior vice president Gary Gilliland in an interview. “We are pretty good at shrinking tumors, but not good at getting rid of them. Immune therapy is a way to begin to approach that.”"

    Yes, Big Pharma is pretty good at shrinking cancerous tumors, but not yet good enough at making them go away.

    Craig's postulation that you treat cancer like you treat an infectious disease requires a/the drug treatment to possess near absolute specificity for diseased tissue (spare normal tissue and clear rapidly from it) and induce a host response (combined apoptosis-autophagy of treated targets because intralesional delivery produces a “vaccine-like” systemic effect that enhances normal human body defenses) over a very wide range of activity (broad spectrum antibiotic-like)


    PV-10 chemoablation causes rapid, complete, durable necrosis of tumor lesions.

    I think it's a good time to be a Provectus shareholder.

    The general discourse at the moment about immunotherapies, however, is far from well understood or a consensus. Take last week's exchange on Adam Feuerstein's Twitter feed @adamfeuerstein below.


    Feuerstein had been explaining the fundamental bear case for Vical's Allovectin-7, but aside from perhaps some valid trial design questions, his "red flags" included a lack of positive statements by melanoma experts and institutional healthcare investors as well as a lack of immune-related toxicity by Allovectin-7. Church is not a fan of immune-related toxicity because of the long-term dangers of altering the immune system in order to use it. All of this despite the on-point replies of other respondents: directing T-cells to attack tumors rather than a broad uncontrolled response, the beauty of local treatment is limited toxicity, revolutionary if the local treatment works on visceral mets, etc.

    Many monoclonal immunotherapies do cause terrible toxicities, which are related not just related to "taking the brakes off" the immune system. Their target antigens are not only on/in the immune cells they wish to suppress. Just like chemotherapy agents, immunotherapy agents also can cause collateral damage with more adverse side effects like cancer and death.

    The nature of the conversation Feuerstein, Church and the others need to have has to be deeper and more substantive. It's too simplistic to say Allovectin-7 does or will not work. Whether it's Allovectin-7 or talimogene laherparepvecone (T-Vec, formerly OncoVEX), or PV-10 itself, one has to balance positive effects with side effects. Think of it as a biological signal-to-noise ratio. One can titer up dosages until one sees bad things happen.

    I think Pfizer probably refused to do this with its anti-CTLA-4 agent tremelimumab, which is why it has a greater failure record in clinical trials than it's Bristol-Myers' ipilimumab. Bristol-Myers probably had a higher tolerance for "bad things to happen" in order to suss out the optimal or near-optimal signal-to-noise or benefit-to-side-effect ratio.

    Remind yourself of Provectus' combination therapy work at AACR 2013 utilizing PV-10 and a systemic anti-CTLA-4 antibody. The highest dose of the latter killed the murine subjects more quickly. Lower doses were less effective but also less dangerous. Interestingly, the results the company concluded that while PV-10 is highly effective when all existing tumor is accessible for injection, for visceral or other inaccessible disease the combination of PV-10 with CTLA-4 blockade has important potential synergy. Nevertheless, the apparent toxicity at high doses of the anti-CTLA-4 antibody markedly reduced the effect of the antibody alone and the combination of PV-10 and the antibody.

    If an immunotherapy is working, there has to be some response (e.g., inflamation, redness, blistering, itching, etc.). These "side effects" come with the territory, and merely are signs the immune system is now in the game. So, while one indeed is generating a toxic response by recruiting the immune system, the key is focusing this toxicity as much as possible.

    The problem with Yervoy, and perhaps immunotherapies like anti-PD-1, anti-PDL-1 agents and other treatments, is the collateral damage they cause to the body. PV-10's great strength has been and is its ability to the target only what it kills and kill only what it targets. Another strength is the drug's ability to generate a very specific, targeted, immune response with very little collateral damage to anything but the tumor itself. So, some blistering occurs, body temperature rises, etc. Nothing more.

    I think it's a good time to be a Provectus shareholder.

    Still, regulatory clarity has to become transparent. Is it an MM Phase 3 trial under SPA powered for for a 6-month progressional free survival for PV-10 vs. 2-month plus PFS for the comparator DTIC?Or is it breakthrough designation therapy and accelerated approval or another accelerated pathway?

    Further still, commercial validation through one or more meaningful license transactions (global, regional, dermatology) is required. For example, will it be Hisun-Pfizer Pharmaceuticals in China? Or another company or entity? The Hisun-Pfizer joint venture was established in 2012 to sell off-patent medicines in China and other emerging markets. But economics are economics. Pfizer's 49% equity ownership and thus 49% ownership of any PV-10 sales in China would be a strong inducement to widening the entity's mandate through a license deal with Provectus.

    Who will it be in India? In Japan? When will PH-10 be licensed, and to whom?

    Provectus is squarely in the eye of key cancer patient advocates. The company participated in Melanoma Research Alliances' (MRA's) Fifth Annual Scientific Retreat in February. In April Peter joined MRA's President and CEO Wendy Selig, LiveSTRONG's President and CEO and Provectus corporate advisory board member Doug Ulman, Moffitt Cancer Research Center's Dr. Shari Pilon-Thomas and some media for dinner.

    Key opinion leaders like Moffitt's Dr. Jeff Weber and Dr. Vernon Sondak and Pfizer's Dr. Craig Eagle are enthused about PV-10 as both a monotherapy and combination therapy.

    More data is on the way. And data is driving and will drive the deals.

    Yes, I think it's a good time to be a Provectus shareholder.

    May 17, 2013

    $PVCT CEO Letter: PV-10 may cure multiple cancer indications


    One of the letter's most key sentences is found in the opening paragraph: "The progress we have made on all fronts confirms our underlying belief in the value of our products and their potential to create a new paradigm for cancer treatment as well as value for our shareholders." Of this sentence, the key phrase is: "a new paradigm for cancer treatment." Craig has innovated a very unique small molecule oncology compound that appears very capable of successfully treating many different cancers. Third party Moffitt has covered multiple indications (e.g., melanoma, breast, lung).

    $PVCT: Bank of America Visits The Blog


    A quick visit (from New York), so don't read too much into it at this point (the Google search terms employed to arrive here were "connecting the dots provectus").

    Still, it's interesting, to me at least, that both Pfizer and Bank of America, Provectus' informal financial adviser until it becomes the company's formal adviser when so engaged, visited the blog on the same day.

    $PVCT: Pfizer Visits The Blog


    A quick visit, so don't read too much into it at this point; however, the Google search terms employed to arrive here were interesting: "pvct and pfizer."

    $PVCT: National Institutes Of Health (NIH) Visits The Blog


    A quick visit, so don't read too much into it at this point.

    Big Pharma: "We are pretty good at shrinking tumors, but not good at getting rid of them."

    Houston, Big Pharma has a problem. Lots of drug candidates, and lots of shrinking. But Big Pharma still cannot get rid of cancer tumors.

    A blog reader forwarded me Dr. Sally Church PhD's post on ASCO 2013 highlights of PD-1 and PDL-1 immunotherapy, which are capturing media attention. Thank you. Her key points include (a) too much focus on overall respons rate (ORR), (b) ORR is a measure of disease control, not disease cure or a measure of response durability, (c) being sure to compare apples to apples when examining these ASCO abstract results, and (d) ORR not being an ideal endpoint, but rather how long do patients live, do they feel better and do they have a better quality of life.

    ORR = CR + PR. Overall response rate equals complete response plus partial response. From RECIST criteria, CR (complete response) = disappearance of all target lesions, and PR (partial response) = 30% decrease in the sum of the longest diameter of target lesions.

    PV-10's clinical value proposition is very simple: Very safe. Very efficacious (effective). Very useful (on many different solid tumor cancers).

    Key, within this value proposition, are how high CR is -- the elimination of tumors, not merely the shrinkage of them -- and the durability of the response to PV-10 -- one the tumors are eliminated, they don't come back. Thus, PV-10's more nuanced value proposition: Permanent elimination.

    Only shrinking tumors, but not fully eliminating them, has the effect of allowing resistance to build up to drug treatment. Harnessing the immune system to turn tumor heterogeneity on its head is facilitated by tumor elimination.

    Other historical therapies -- from the previous standard of care of DTIC to anti-CTLA-4 agents like treme and ipi to intralesional therapies immunotherapies like Allovectin-7 and OncoVex (T-Vec or talimogene laherparepvec) to emerging immunotherapies like anti-PD-1 and anti-PDL-1 agents -- do not have the complete response of tumors that PV-10 generates.



    In the Phase 2 trial, there was an 80% treatment success rate of individual lesions with an associated complete response ("CR") of more than 50%. Think of a set of data comprising all lesions treated, irrespective of patient. Success was achieved in 80% of these datapoints. 80% success was achieved despite limited treatment (i.e., 1 initial injection and up to 3 additional injections), physician error while injecting lesions (i.e., some lesions were improperly injected), patients and their lesions left the trial, and patients with compromised immune systems and ravaged bodies from failed prior treatments had their lesions injected.

    Final results of patients included:



    May 16, 2013

    $PVCT's PV-10 and $VICL's Allovectin-7

    I know this comparison is spurious because apples are not being compared to apples. Nevertheless, it's interesting [at least to me] to consider. Both companies, Provectus and Vical, released information at conferences regarding combination therapies.

    In November 2012 Vical released animal data at the 9th International Congress of the Society for Melanoma Research documenting the benefits of combining Allovectin-7 with anti-CTLA-4, anti-PD-1 and anti-PD-L1 antibodies. The poster is here.

    In April 2013 Provectus released data at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting documenting the benefits of combining PV-10 with an anti-CTLA-4 antibody. The poster is here.

    Vical's methodology was:

    Provectus' low dose (of the anti-CTLA4 antibody) methodology was:

    Allovectin's survival graph:

    PV-10' low dose (of 9H10) survival graph:
    The PV-10 legend is to the left.

    $PVCT: Bristol-Myers Visits The Blog, Again

    The Princeton, NJ office visited, looking at a blog post I had written discussing Vical/Allovectin-7 and Provectus/PV-10.

    Since the release of final MM Phase 2 trial data at ESMO 2012, through the presentation of systemic immune response data at AACR 2013, Western Big Pharma visitors to the blog have included, in no particular order, AstraZeneca (I think), Daiichi Sankyo, Amgen (I think), Merck, Bristol-Myers, and Johnson & Johnson.

    The blog is just a proxy, producing different kinds and types of valuable data from which one variously can make observations and draw conclusions. While I would not rely too heavily on either of these, the data nevertheless have value.

    If I easily can observe Big Pharma interest in PV-10 through staff members visiting my blog, the actual inbound interest via the company very likely is more substantial and substantive.

    There really is a simple takeaway from all of this: Interest in PV-10 from Big Pharma is materially growing.

    Don't hate Provectus. Hate PV-10.