February 22, 2012

Psoriasis Phase 2c Trial Results

I expect the long-awaited top-line results for Provectus' psoriasis Phase 2c trial will be made available to the market via PR in March (see my change in expectations here). Potential derm licensee partners should have access to the much larger dataset at or around the same time.

After reviewing the prospective PR, one might (a) conclude PH-10 displayed "middle-of-the-road" (average to good) efficacy, (b) observe there was no benefit from the vehicle, and (c) recall the excellent safety profile of PH-10 (and, for that matter, PV-10 and rose bengal). The pivotal Phase 3 trial, with constraints in the Phase 2c trial lifted, is where I expect to see robust efficacy based on that trial's design parameters. For more on this topic, see my Dermapalooza post here.

More importantly, the PR serves as a timer or stopwatch of sorts, clocking the time needed or required by management to produce a derm licensure deal. As I mentioned above, data would (should) be shared with potential partners. One or more of them may (should) extend a term sheet or two. The financial adviser, then, would (should) be formally announced, via PR, to begin an auction process to license off (sell) the derm business, using the term sheet(s) as the starting point for this deal making process. I will revisit this in subsequent posts as we approach this action.

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