August 19, 2012

Getting To Yes

There's time and space between now and an equity investment by Pfizer or another Big Pharma company, between now and a license deal with one of them, between now and the acquisition of Provectus.

How much? It's unclear, of course, but perhaps not as much as you might think.

In a prior post, I presented an etheric-like plane in which the company exists, between a world where no one moves unless someone moves and one where someone moves because they have to move.

So, when/why does someone move? It is a result of several things:
  1. PV-10 is in strategy and aligned with commercial capabilities,
  2. The drug has reached sufficient technical maturity to be sufficiently de-risked to the point that it is worth a bet (e.g., SPA, technical data, clinical data,  KOL support), and
  3. There is a menu/revenue gap in the strategic plan of the pharma company interested in Provectus.
Big pharma is there, so to speak, with nos. 1 and 3. That leaves no. 2:
  • The timing of the SPA is base case Q3.
  • Technical data refers to a large category of data, from immunology-related murine study work by Moffitt to toxicity to manufacturing (CMC: Chemistry, Manufacturing and Control) to direct and indirect data. Moffit's next round of murine results is inbound (perhaps available as early as late-Q3 but more likely some time in Q4). Other technical data is at or nearing sufficiency.
  • Clinical data refers to all PV-10 clinical study and compassionate use program data. Clinical data should be at or nearing sufficiency (although that's not to say more data cannot be generated from other new and later stage trials such as pancreas and liver), likely culminating at ESMO 2012.
  • Key opinion leader (KOL) support is in process. It should reach sufficiency with the announcement of the SPA and the full characterization of PV-10's systemic benefit, which could be the next round of Moffitt data.
As you can see, I am trying to understand why and when someone like Dr. Eagle at Pfizer or his counterparts at other Big Pharma companies will move.

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