January 20, 2013

$PVCT: A Contrarian Indicator?

The post below was written last week by SG, a long-time poster on the Silicon Investor PVCT chat board.

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He first started contributing to the board in May 2006, noting his buys around that time (1st orange oval), perhaps in the $1.50-2.00 per share range. SG later wrote about his buys when the stock made an all-time high (intraday: $3.05, closing: $3.00) in September 2007 (2nd orange oval), perhaps in the $2.50-3.00 per share range.

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Last week, after holding Provectus shares for about 6.7 years, SG wrote he sold all but a 1,000 shares, perhaps in the $0.55-0.60 per share range (blue arrow), several cents above the stock's all-time closing low ($0.52). The intraday low was $0.43.

In reading his post, I was struck by its similarity to the magazine cover indicator, "which says that the cover story on the major business magazines, particularly BusinessWeek, Forbes and Fortune in the United States is often a contrary indicator."

Technical analysts often talk about a market washout -- a large share price plunge on above-average volume -- that clear the markets of bearish sentiment and help mark the/a major bottom.

It's quite possible Provectus' bottom, either in share price or market irrelevance or both, was quietly, perhaps a tad ignominiously, and most irrelevantly marked by the departure of SG, a retail investor who believed at one time but believed no more.

But no one really knows in the moment that a contrarian indicator (or any indicator for that matter) is indeed an indicator. With the benefit of hindsight, it always is.

Management has set several expectations for a busy calendar quarter (1Q13) that should have positive impacts on the share price. Let's see how the rest of this month and February shape up in that regard.

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I continue to perform due-diligence with KOLs relative to Provectus' value proposition, and will have more to share on that topic in due course.

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