February 3, 2013

$PVCT: Fundraising? Haven't Seen It Yet.

As of the last 10-Q, as at 9/30/12, Provectus had cash and cash equivalents of $1.84MM. In October, per the Q, management raised about $2MM (in which both Eric and Peter participated). The company had just under $4MM going into 4Q12. We are some 4 months later from the end of 3Q12. The 10-K for 2012, with cash balance figures as 12/31/12, comes out in March.

Raising another "slug of money," like management did in October 2012, is a consideration depending on how deal discussions and activity go. Obviously management would prefer partnership agreements that provide cash for operations without punitive equity dilution; that is, raising money at current share price levels.

Right now, such fund raising appears secondary to China potential, other potential (license related) and/or, possibly, news flow (where management uses a piece of its shelf filing to raise money at higher share prices, and thus is less but stil dilutive).

If we can expect a China deal and its upfront payment of multiple tens of millions of dollars at the end of February or thereabouts, that is nearly 5 months later.

Management burned ~$745K per month in Q3. The burn rate has come down, but to what (for us to explore this thought exercise, until it becomes reality once we have the actual data)? $500K? More? Less? At $500K, or an expenditure of $2.5MM through the end of February, perhaps there's a cushion of under $1.5MM. Perhaps $2MM at the end of January.

If we learn of a company fundraising, China is going to take time or may not happen. From what I gather, Craig recently turned down one and maybe two unsolicited requests to invest money in the company, and purportedly told these folks to buy shares in the market.

As each week between now and the end of next month passess, if no money raise is announced or sussed out, a China deal could be a reality (in lieu of other potential or more immediate news flow) because management thinks there is greater certainty of that money arriving, via China, in Provectus' bank accounts.

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