March 25, 2013

Trying to Connect $PVCT Dots to Pfizer

As readers of this blog know, I've been trying to connect the dots from Provectus to Pfizer for a while. I think the larger company ultimately acquires the smaller one. When Pfizer would move to acquire Provectus is unclear, in the absence of a bid for the company by another Big Pharma, and whether it would do so certainly is not certain. Nevertheless, I think there simply are too many dots. The public ones are the corporate advisory board's Dr. Eagle and joint Provectus-Pfizer patent application.

Management denies Pfizer made an all cash $7 per share bid for the company in 2011, valuing the company around $1B. Since no 8K form was filed (formality, language, materiality), no bid was made, right? That year, melanoma treatments vemurafenib/Zelboraf (Plexxikon) and talimogene laherparepvec/T-Vec (BioVex) were acquired for $1B top-line figures. Interestingly, partial T-Vec MM Phase 3 trial results caused Amgen shares to rally last week, while the takeaway from the HemOnc Today conference in New York this past Friday and Saturday was systemic benefit from injectables is a keen area of focus.

Is Pfizer a passive spectator on Provectus' sidelines, or is it more vocal and active than we know?

I had hoped to connect another dot between Pfizer and Provectus through more information about a China deal. China is a unique market, and partnerships with local players rather than in-country Big Pharma subsidiaries appear to be the way to go. A vocal Pfizer might encourage Provectus to partner up with Sinopharm or Hisun or maybe Shanghai Pharma, Chinese pharmaceutical companies with Pfizer relationships of one sort of another. Interestingly, injectables are the preferred route of administration for oncology drugs in China.

Alternatively, Provectus might elect to do something with another Big Pharma in China along the lines of what AstraZeneca did with Ironwood. If this happens, Godzilla (Pfizer) might have a fight over the company on its hands.

Like with China, several of the leading local players in India are very interested in PV-10. Pfizer's Indian subsidiary, Pfizer Limited, India (which appears to be a wholly owned but independent subsidiary), may also be a potential player too. Could (would) Pfizer encourage (direct) Provectus to do a deal with Pfizer India, which might not have nearly as many shortcomings or competitive disadvantages in India as Pfizer China has in China (when compared to the likes of Sinopharm or Hisun)?

Can management ultimately optimize ROI, an effort that is no small feat? Any Big Pharma would be hard pressed to pay Celgene-Abraxis upfront money, which is management's expectation, for a sub-$100 million market capitalization company like Provectus is valued at now. Regional license discussions continue in China, India and Japan. Global license interest grows. Moffitt data surfaces in two weeks. Action and time will tell.

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