December 28, 2013

Phase Change

Noun1.phase change - a change from one state (solid or liquid or gas) to another without a change in chemical composition

Today, notwithstanding the swoosh from the open through (blue rectangle below), the stock, measured by several metrics, has changed phases in December (particularly since about mid-December), compared to previous months as well as the company's past. From active pre-market trading to a share price above $2 to daily multi-million share trading volume to much more blog visitation, it seems clear the situation has changed from one state to another.

Yesterday, we traded 50,000 shares in the pre-market, nearly 2 million by 10 am EST, and had more visitors to and readership of the blog before 10 am EST than it normally receives in a day before December. Phase change.
Click to enlarge the figure.
I updated readers through the blog's News tab about growing visitation and readership. The share price closed at $0.94 on December 2nd.
  • On December 8th I wrote blog readership, on a weekly basis, reached new highs for the period December 1st to 7th (e.g., 544 unique visitors, versus the last high of 502 for the week September 15th to 21st when on September 13th the closing price of $0.80 increased to $1.14 on September 20th before closing at $1.04 on the same day); the share price closed at $0.99 on December 6th,
  • Weekly readership set a new high for the period December 8th to 14th (e.g., 771 unique visitors); the share price closed at $1.54 on December 13th (the special shareholder meeting was held on December 16th),
  • A third new high for the period December 15th to 21st (e.g., 799 unique visitors); the share price closed at $1.50 on December 20th (Provectus issued two press releases, Provectus Announces Name Change to Provectus Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. and Reincorporates in Delaware on December 17th and Provectus Type C Meeting With FDA Oncology Division Held December 16, 2013 on December 18th), and
  • A fourth consecutive new high for the as yet not completed the period December 22nd to 28th (e.g., 1,002 unique visitors as of this writing, with a day to go); the share price closed at $2.18 on December 27th (no press releases or news).
Click to enlarge the figure.
Click to enlarge the table.
Yes, share price has increased dramatically in the month over previous months and years. Volume, however, increased as dramatically. Eight of the top ten highest daily volume days have been in December, including the top seven. The last four days ranked #6 (23rd), #3 (24th), #4 (26th) and #1 (27th), respectively. Eleven of the last twelve days have seen daily volume exceed one million shares. Volume exceeded two million shares for each of the last four days. three million shares for each of the last three days.

Daily "dollar volume," where I multiplied the daily volume by the closing price [that day] has increased dramatically for the month of December, too, when compared to prior months.
Click to enlarge the figure.
To put the explosion in blog visitation and readership (a proxy for company/drug/stock awareness, interest in the company/drug/stock, etc.) in perspective, as of this writing, blog stats for # of Unique Visitors, # of Page Views, # of Visits, # of U.S. States (from where visitors came), # of U.S. Cities, # of World Cities, # of Countries, and Total # of Cities increased anywhere from 11% to 70% over their respective previous high.

December, with four days to go: 2,326 unique visitors, 16,778 page views and 8,467 visits from 51 U.S. states and the District of Columbia,  807 U.S. cities, 136 non-U.S. or international cities and 59 countries.
Click to enlarge the figure.
More awareness of the company, drug and stock.

Sure, there are more day and momentum traders (reflected in an increasing price, and larger price swings). Price increases, price above certain levels, volume increases, etc. have drawn attention to the company on stock screeners and filters. There are also more buyers (investors) too (reflected in a higher share price). PVCT's one-year stock performance of 294.21% (Yahoo! Finance, 12/27/12-12/27/13) would rank it ninth (Finviz stock screener) on a biotechnology company list.
Click to enlarge the figure.
In truth, with the recent increase in the share price, Provectus' market capitalization, as a post-Phase 2/pre-Phase 3 is beginning to reflect where its valuation might be along the so-called biotech valuation curve. I cannot locate the source now (it's lost somewhere in mounds of written and digital notes), although I can reference a prior stock chat room post of mine from March 2010, but there was a "rule of thumb" (n.b. the market has a way of cutting your thumbs off when you're wrong) regarding valuation and phase of trial:
  • Phase 1: <$50 million (including research, preclinical)
  • Phase 2: $100-250 million
  • Phase 3: $500 million-$1 billion (risk-reward inflects between Phase 2 & Phase 3)
  • Approval: >$1 billion (including launch)
Yesterday's close yields a market capitalization of about $305MM (an enterprise value of about $249MM). Provectus' intrinsic value, I believe, is much, much higher, but at current public company valuation levels it's not unreasonable to think the company is not unreasonably valued.

All manner of low life, high life, and lives in between are looking at, buying and/or shorting the stock. More so than ever before. That much is clear.

To be sure, Craig, Tim, Eric and Peter have set some expectations with the company's December 18th press release Provectus Type C Meeting With FDA Oncology Division Held December 16, 2013 (linked above): "The minutes will clarify the available regulatory paths and, therefore, allow the Company to better estimate a time-line to commercialization of PV-10." Not to mention a capitalized (why is management shouting?), "line in the sand" byline: "OFFICIAL MINUTES EXPECTED BY JANUARY 15, 2014." What they're saying seems pretty clear to me.

Which brings me back to yesterday's morning swoosh. I've long believed there would be a significant, if not dramatic, turnover in the share holder base between $2 and $3 per share. I think some of the volatility over the last few days reflects this, in part. Large buyers moved in. Earlier in the morning, from the open through about 10 am, Citadel (broker) stepped back from the bid, allowing the price to collapse, before buying it back up (blue rectangle above). There is a belief Citadel was facilitating a large buyer's activity. From there, for 6 hours until the close, the share price range traded as volume steadily increased to an all-time high of 4.5 million shares. Some 14 million shares over the last four days.

As I note under the blog's disclosure tab, I have not sold any of the shares we have accumulated thus far.

Peter confirmed earlier today, directly from his NASDAQ listing agent contacts, that the exchange's listing standards are 90 days/$2 and 5 days/$3 (so, no change since last year when it relaxed their listing standards to the current ones).

More buying interest in advance of a January 15th (or 16th/17th) press release regarding regulatory path and commercialization timeline may take the stock onto the NASDAQ. Announcement of inbound (received) term sheets from China and/or India, let alone a consummated transaction, may do so as well. Other assorted news (e.g., a new member of the board of directors, a liver trial update, a PH-10 update, more Moffitt words about revolutionizing, etc.) may contribute, too.

After reading thousands of pages of administrative and correspondence documents between the FDA and applicants in regards to the latter's drug approvals, it's not a surprise how the process generally works. The specifics vary, but the process is the process. Minutes...are the instant written record of a meeting or hearing. Reading the aforementioned documents, you'll easily understand the nature, construct, purpose, review, revision, use, etc. of Agency meeting minutes.

In my June 2013 post For $PVCT, it's the FDA's move I wrote about Peter's Provectus' game theory "rules:"
  • No one moves unless they have to move.
  • Everyone moves when somebody moves.
"No one" and "everyone" includes Big Pharma, life sciences investors and, as importantly, Provectus. If we're then waiting for the FDA to move -- to provide regulatory clarity -- then why would global players, regional players and Provectus itself all not simply wait until the FDA moves by making a decision (all potential outcomes being positive), whatever that decision turns out to be?

January 15th, or thereabouts (i.e., whenever Eric can finalize the press released based on what the minutes say, and what the company wishes to say about them), is a "binary" event. Rather than a 1 or 0, win or loss, success or failure, etc., its more of a 1 or 0.75, best or better, AA or BTD (plus a pathway); otherwise known as "it's all good." It is quite possible we hear about the regulatory path and commercialization timeline from management before the 15th.

Deals often crystallize before such events.

I wonder about Pfizer in all of this; the Big Pharma company with the biggest nose under the tent for the longest time.

The FDA has moved. Its move clearly will affect regional, worldwide and end-game transactions. No one (global players, regional players) moved because they did not have to move. The FDA moved, so everyone (global players, regional players) now must move.

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