January 15, 2012

Somebody's Watching Me

I always feel like
Somebody's watching me (Rockwell)

Another shareholder, with Wall Street experience, and I recently contemplated the potential share price behavior when Provectus agrees to/receives an SPA with/from the FDA for the company's pivotal MM Phase 3 trial. Set aside the temporal differences between reaching a consensus agreement with the FDA on a trial design suitable for an SPA, and receiving official notification of the SPA itself.

As a reminder, my current expectation is for management to complete their remaining trial parameter discussions with the FDA at the 4th EOP2 meeting and, thus, agree on a consensus design; a meeting that likely would be held around or before mid-February.

Management has worked hard to bring institutional investors into the stock, while cultivating ownership from stable, committed, supportive individual investors.

With the agreement announcement, at a minimum, or the receipt announcement, at the latest, I assume the share price would go vertical and endeavor to approach (but perhaps not initially reach) Maxim and Rodman & Renshaw's overripe price targets ($3, I think but cannot recall). To be sure, many of us in the stock at large ownership levels could well be drinking the Kool-Aid after all this time.

This other shareholder said he was not sure. While his perspective surprised me, it certainly resonated with a part of me that thinks it may take a little while for the sound of obtaining the SPA to reach the ears of more institutional investors. The shareholder made the point that he is not sure who exactly is looking at the stock and the company. He's not referring to those investor folks who are waiting on the sidelines for the company to officially receive the SPA. He's referring to the greater universe of investors who simply know nothing of the company. Being an OTC stock, being under $5, being under the radar screen of most industry participants, etc. contribute to a low profile.

When the announcement(s) is (are) made, don't be surprised if the share price behavior initially is underwhelming (i.e., it doesn't jump as much as I/you think it might/should). It might take some time for those eyes to turn their gaze towards the stock.

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