January 30, 2012

Volume precedes price, or maybe it was "'i' before 'e' except after 'c'"

The stock has been averaging nearly 200,000 shares traded per day since the company's most recent announcement about FDA guidance on the SPA. Take out the euphoric trading on the day of the announcement, and the stock is averaging 150,000 shares traded per day, which, while low, still is nearly 50% higher than daily trading in November and early- to mid-December. Anyway you cut it, though, we need to be trading several multiples of these numbers. Soon but not imminent (like later next month or this quarter), perhaps...

I highly doubt there will be new news for us to digest and analyze over the next few weeks. Next on tap, sometime towards mid- to late-February should (could) be the release of the MM Phase 2 and psoriasis Phase 2c trial data.

In the meantime, some further staring at belly buttons. November and early- to mid-December was typical (although Network One returned as a market maker in December). We see decreasing share price and relatively meager volume (remember: trading volume in the first half of 2011 was quite robust). Daily trading seems predictable, following the trend line (dotted, light blue line) with a high R-squared value:

Then, we see an increasing share price and materially higher volume (108K shares traded per day above v. 194K per day below):

On January 18, Provectus announces FDA guidance on its pursuit of an SPA for the company's pivotal Phase 3 trial for MM. Share price bounces around, but daily trading volume continues at previous elevated levels.

Scully: What if there was only one choice and all the other ones were wrong? And there were signs along the way to pay attention to.

Mulder: Mmm. And all the choices would then lead to this very moment. One wrong turn, and we wouldn't be sitting here together. Well, that says a lot. That says a lot, a lot, a lot.

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