September 29, 2012

$PVCT.OB: Didn't See That Coming

I have been blogging a lot this month. There has been a lot about which to write. Month-over-month blog readership is up 30-60% across all major metrics (e.g., visits +46%, unique visitors +31%, pageviews +57%, average visit duration +41%, etc.). There will be as much or more to write about next month.

I think this there is an outcome much of the market currently does not see coming. I wrote yesterday about the market confusion regarding the PVCTP "IPO" and the current depression of the share price. At this point in time the market is about expectations. And those expectations, unfortunately, are not high going into ESMO 2012 and October.

We await regulatory clarity of the path to approval of PV-10 for metastatic melanoma (i.e., the SPA PR). We know the company requires money to conduct pivotal, key and other trial work (e.g., MM Phase 3, expanded liver Phase 1, liver Phase 2/3, pancreas Phase 1, psoriasis Phase 3, etc.). $15-30MM certainly substantially or fully covers this work. The market is unsure of the timing of the SPA PR. It also thinks the company will incur substantial dilution to achieve this fund raising.

What happens to market expectations of the company and common stock share price if the SPA PR is followed by a license deal announcement, whether dermatology or geographic-specific oncology, that provides most or all of the money above? This outcome causes a complete and utter upside surprise to the market, given what it thinks right now. The share price should blow upward because Provectus not only would have exceeded expectations but destroyed them through a non-dilutive "financing" event.

Below is my current take of the horse race of financing and "financing" options to secure monies for more trial work. I hope to update this more frequently as facts change and events transpire.

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