February 21, 2013

$PVCT Who? Rose Bengal What?

I found what I believe are circa 2008 figures of the number of public companies on major and minor U.S. stock exchanges. Thousands and thousands... Of those, there are 400 to 450 public biotechnology companies.

It's easy to rail against the universe and management in the echo chamber of blogs like mine and online stock boards about lack of awareness of the company. Some of it is warranted. Most of it is not. We certainly can argue all day about this. I find myself on each side of the argument, depending on the day or month. The hard truth, and really what it comes down to, is most folks, investors-at-large at a minimum, do not know about the company.

Management has routinely said the company's primary customers are the FDA and Big Pharma; the former as it relates to the regulatory path, and the latter as it relates to the eventual buyer of the company. When it comes to creating an actual product and traveling the path to bring it to market (or seeking the right pharma partner to do so), management's approach is smart, particularly given the novelty and innovation of PV-10, its new pathway, a long-desired approach to treat cancer in a different, more effective manner, etc.

It is hyperbole for anyone outside of the medical community to even think about calling PV-10 a cure for cancer or the closest thing to it.

The rule for treating cancer is to treat it as early as one can. PV-10 is positioned very well in the treatment ladder (we await Moffitt to explain the drug's clinical relevance), from a diagnostic to pre-surgery application to post-surgery application -- collectively the vast portion of the cancer market -- to application in combination with radiotherapy and systemic chemotherapies and immunotherapies for very late stage disease-afflicted patients -- a very important but small portion of the market.

As I wrote previously, Provectus is approaching catalytic milestone events that should move the share price substantially (that is what management believes); as a result, it is now or in short order fair to management and shareholders to measure the resulting movement or lack of movement in share price after these events (the SPA's receipt, Moffitt's explanations, a China deal).

I did a quick thought experiment:
  • Came up with 15 so-called cancer immunotherapy companies. 
  • Went to SeekingAlpha and typed in their ticker symbols in order to find out how many SA members had subscribed to alerts about each company.
  • Graphed the results, and they are telling (see below).

After one or more of the SPA, Moffitt and China, what happens when more people become aware of the drug, company and stock?

What's the outcome of a 10x increase in PVCT SeekingAlpha subscribers, for example and as a proxy for greater awareness by investors-at-large?

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