February 20, 2013

$PVCT: It doesn't get more definitive.

It doesn't get more simple than this. I think management's position on two key value drivers clearly is definitive.

#1. The SPA is key to life sciences investors getting into the stock because of the very specific regulatory path clarity and the management of such it provides. Get the SPA, and these investors will buy Provectus shares.

#2. Life sciences investors need to understand PV-10's clinical relevance. Substantive data explaining the "bystander effect" and PV-10's immune mediated signaling, a new pathway, among other things, will be presented at a major conference and contemporaneously published in a peer-reviewed publication for the first time (I am confident I figured out the names of the conference and journal). Moffitt explains the systemic and immune-mediated benefit of local agent PV-10, and these investors will buy stock.

#3. China needs no comment from management. Close at least a good regional license deal with good upfront, milestone and royalty payments, and investors of all stripes will buy Provectus shares.

I looked at these three near-term value drivers -- the SPA, Moffitt's work and a China deal -- and their respective importance to key Provectus constituents: the FDA, Big Pharma, life sciences investors, and investors at large (of which I of course am one). This assessment is illustrated in the table below.

The FDA is the constiuent most relevant to PV-10's regulatory path for (a) the SPA so Provectus ultimately may achieve approval for the focused label of local treatment of Stage III MM cancer patients, (b) accelerated approval for MM, which could have a one-in-two chance of being achieved after Moffitt's conference presentation and journal publication, and (c) to a lesser extent only because management is mum on the topic, breakthrough therapy designation for liver cancer.

Big Pharma cares about the SPA, but it seems they care much more about Moffitt's story and explanation of PV-10's clinical relevance. Randomized data, interim or otherwise, is very meaningful to Big Pharma. Should the pivotal MM trial start at the end of March or in April, it is conceivable an interim dataset could be made available to Pfizer and others to peruse in late-Q3 or Q4 2013. Nevertheless, the new pathway discovered explains how PV-10 facilitates the death of cancer, and it could be novel and important enough to spur Big Pharma to act. Only time and the degree of Moffitt's reception by the global oncology community will tell.

Life Sciences Investors care about the SPA and Moffitt. Management comes across as definitive on these items: Get it and explain it, respectively, and these investors will buy Provectus stock.

Investors at large care about the SPA, Moffitt and China. Portions of this constituency get in early -- before the SPA, Moffitt and China fully unfold -- because they like the story and think they understand the opportunity. Other portions jump in after one or more of these events occur. Still others enter the fray as the share price moves higher.

It is fair, now, to both management and shareholders, to measure the resulting movement or lack of movement in share price after the SPA's receipt and Moffitt's explanations, whether you're an investor in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Hong Kong, New York, Illinois, Texas, Tennessee, California, or in one of many other places in North America, Europe and Asia.

In truth, no one really knows what the company's share price will do until it does it. After the SPA and Moffitt, let's take stock (pardon the pun) of Provectus, management and the share price.

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