October 3, 2012


When do you now expect the FDA issues an SPA to PVCT?
Do you have any other insight into a possible dermatology deal and/or regional oncology JV? The pressure on the stock due to a lack of clarity on the financing to go forward and announcement of an SPA can at times be very unnerving.
Do we now have the "investors" in the preferred shorting the ____ out of the common for a better conversion rate? A low price helps only the person buying the preferred shares.
It really seems a moment to consider cutting your losses. My confidence is seriously waning. SI poster
The above is a sampling of what I have received recently via calls, e-mail (directly to me or through i.am.a.pvct.investor@gmail.com) and the blog. As much as readership statistics clearly indicate growing interest in and awareness of Provectus and PV-10 (a great thing taking the long-term view of eventual price appreciation), in the short-term increasing numbers of comments such as these anecdotally suggest shareholders feeling more and more unnerved and lost.

These emotions are natural. You feel them when you are considerably underwater in your share cost basis, cannot easily foresee the path forward for the share price to higher and loftier levels, and feel insecure in your investment or trading thesis of the stock.

Proponents and practitioners of behavioral finance would suggest now might be a good time to begin buying the stock. But that will not make some of you feel better.

There is selling: The simplest reason for the drastic drop in the share price is there are more sellers than buyers. Sellers, whether forced, shorting structurally or purposefully, fearful of dilution, having lost the conviction of their principles or belief in their investment theses, etc., are selling. Buyers need more information and clarity, and are not buying enough to offset the selling.

Barring news, it is not unreasonable to expect further pressure on the stock this week and into the middle of next week. More people will get unnerved and more people will sell. You could and probably will be tested further.

PVCTP is not exactly helping: The uncertainty surrounding the PVCTP "IPO" remains. I have heard no specifics regarding pricing, save the speculation masked as certainty from Maxim. If the preferred offering is utilized, having Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson co-leads would mean company friendly terms.

The SPA?: The lack of an SPA PR announcing its receipt has disappointed some.
It is not difficult to see why an agreed upon SPA would be desirable to have...An SPA can be appealing to the industry since it is sometimes difficult to get timely feedback from the agency. Once FDA has indicated it accepts the protocol, a company will assume it has a written contract with the reviewing division assuring acceptance of the proposed efficacy claim if the data fit the prospectively defined success criteria. This is perceived to reduce risk by eliminating the fear that a positive outcome in Phase III might not result in approval if the trial design is not acceptable to FDA. Obviously that kind of risk minimization is alluring to analysts and board members. (Source)
Management is committed to the process. As I wrote yesterday, I am led to believe there is no more negotiating or discussion with the FDA on the trial design. But, the SPA will arrive when it arrives.
It is also important to be realistic about the SPA time frame...[T]he SPA process has, at times, become a protracted early battleground for future efficacy claims. Very often the disagreements are centered on the primary outcome variable and intended statistical analysis. Of course those are intimately related to future label claims and size of the study, possibly the most vital elements in a development program. (same source as above)
Balance sheet?: And concerns remain about the company having sufficient money to begin conducting, let alone completing, pivotal, key and other trial work.

There is no doubt the stock is broken, but the company is not. Broken stocks see their share prices fall despite sound fundamentals; in Provectus' case, very attractive clinical, regulatory and business value propositions (and some aspects of the stock value proposition as well). Broken companies are flawed in one or more fundamental ways, and their share prices are very validly beaten up for them.

Nothing has changed from my depiction of the horserace on Sunday. Timing is an issue, but when is it not. These things will play themselves out. My investment thesis remains. I am not here to hold your hand, but to ask you:

Has PV-10's clinical value proposition and, thus, your investment thesis changed for the worse?

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