$PVCT Europe Bound

Peter leaves for Europe on Monday for business development activities, which may include meetings with some or all of prospective pharma partners, industry KOLs, potential investors and existing shareholders. This trip appears more focused on partners and partnerships.

Did An #Institutional #Investor in $PVCT Close Its Shop?

Funds blow up and/or close down all the time. Natural selection. Darwinian evolution. Call it what you want. The recent depression in certain commodity prices was attributed by some to the blow up of a couple of funds and the liquidation of their positions.

Many commodity markets are deep (i.e., very liquid), like certain U.S. large cap equity names for example, and closing of positions (more often long, thus liquidation means selling) don't usually move prices much unless those positions were large to very large. Market participants in the know about such closings/liquidations often step out of the way until the fund(s) is(are) done.

Sizable positions in less liquid or illiquid assets or stocks can move prices much more. And knowledgeable market participants do the same thing. They wait, and then they act (if they desire to act at all).

I have written about Revelation, a formerly large shareholder of Provectus stock, converting its preferred shares into common and selling them. The firm's latest Form 13G filing indicated a dramatic reduction in beneficial ownership. Sometimes investors decide they've had enough and throw in the towel. It happens to institutional and retail investors alike.

Rumors are circulating about Revelation sold its Provectus warrants too. Sometimes investors sell because their closing down, and their selling has nothing to do with their investment thesis related to a particular holding. A hedge fund doesn't sell its warrants, digging around for the very last scrap in its larder, if it's throwing in the towel on its thesis. The situation arises because the fund and perhaps the firm itself are closing down.

A graph of Revelation's quarter-end 13F SEC filings from 12/31/11 to 12/31/12 is below.

The number of holdings (13F entries) and amount of assets under management related to these holdings (cash is not reported) for the period or quarter ending 12/31/12 are down considerably from, say, the last quarter-end of 9/30/12, let alone year-over-year.

We obviously don't know Revelation's fund terms and conditions (e.g., redemption notices, gates, etc.), but it is very possible the fund and maybe the firm is closing.

Short interest for the period ending February 15 is reported tomorrow. The large spike in short interest, perhaps attributed to the "fake short" caused by converting preferred shares into common shares, might fall and confirm Revelation was responsible for it. Rear-view mirror stuff.

If the Big Seller has been Revelation liquidating its Provectus holding, the loss of this downward pressure on the stock may permit natural buying interest to push the share up dramatically more.

$PVCT: Numbers

Short interest has fallen (currently available: the period ending December 31, 2012).

Click figure to enlarge it.

Today's trading volume seems true to recent form.

Click figure to enlarge it.

Let's see what next week brings.

$PVCT: SPA?

October 2, 2012 PR

The finer point of this press release and paragraph could be: "We look forward to formal review of the resultant protocol and supportive programmatic elements with FDA under the SPA process."

Has management truly (not technically) filed the SPA (i.e., filed for submission with no thought of withdrawing it)? If so, when (so we might apply the erstwhile "45-day clock")? I know not...

Receiving consensus for a Phase 3 SPA from the FDA is a 2012 company goal. While management gets the concerns of shareholders asking when the SPA will arrive, they seem unperturbed and unconcerned (i.e., not worried) about situation.

Maybe the 45-day clock, is like Barbossa's view of the Code of the Pirate Brethren: It's more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules. Welcome aboard the Black Pearl, Miss Turner...Arr!

$PVCT.OB: Buyout Rumor? Uh, no.

Most rumors I hear are not remotely close to being true. There is not even a grain of truth in them, which all good rumors typically possess. If interesting and germane, I try to confirm the substance of a good rumor with separate and distinct shareholder groups with whom I communicate (the PVCT "town" is a small one). I solicit feedback from management, too.

An interesting rumor, from several perspectives, is the one I heard today: a certain group of shareholders is interested in taking/will take Provectus private (i.e., a buyout) at $3 per share. Management is aware of the situation.

I am very skeptical for several reasons including but not limited to:

• I doubt this group or, for that matter, any syndicate or group of existing Provectus shareholders owning a large number of shares can pull this off.

• You have to wonder if you and I will hear more of this kind of talk, whether out of frustration with management or simply to pump up the share price on helium in order to close or in hopes of closing out a share position at a lesser loss.

• Give or take the number of shares this group might own, a buyout at $3 would price the company at about $400-450MM. That is a lot of cheese for a group of existing shareholders.

The journey to a buyout begins with several initial steps. Typically, one starts with at least a 5% ownership or thereabouts. Revelation (formerly Osmium) was the last entity (actually, the only entity, not counting Dr. Adams) to file a beneficial ownership greater than 5%. The filing was a passive one. Their investment style/strategy was/is event driven. They are not activist investors. And we have not heard from them in quite a long time.

From a 5% position, a shareholder (or group) could either agitate for change or launch a full blown tender for shares (among other things it or they could do). Unless a buyout group -- whether a cadre of existing shareholders or prospective new ones -- has the real ability to manage the science, regulatory and science communications processes here, among other necessary and needed experience sets to take the company to the end-game, the notion of buying the company for $3 and "flipping it" to Big Pharma is just fanciful.

A more interesting scenario develops if Pfizer or another Big Pharma currently watching the company closely fears a move towards a buyout would forclose the opportunity for them (PFE or another Big Pharma) to buy Provectus. Rumors or hints of a buyout might provoke Pfizer, among others, to act. While you should not hold your breath, it is worth paying a small bit of attention to see if anything more develops.

$PVCT.OB/$PVCTP: Provectus Pharmaceuticals Terminates Proposed Convertible Preferred Stock Offering

Provectus terminated the PVCTP IPO after the market close today. The PR is here.

Perhaps, now, Thursday morning cannot come soon enough. Eh, Shorty?

$PVCT/$PVCT.OB: Update

More confirmation coming in from non-company sources: An "IPO" will not be done at these share prices, if one is done at all.

$PVCT/$PVCT.OB: Update

Over the course of my many discussions with shareholders today, I have encouraged all of them to share their views about the PVCTP "IPO" and, what appears to me to be, an attack on the common share price with Peter. I have shared my own thoughts with Peter multiple times today, as well as many times prior to today.

I have heard from multiple non-company sources that an "IPO" will not be done at these share prices, if one is done at all.

$PVCT.OB

When do you now expect the FDA issues an SPA to PVCT?

Do you have any other insight into a possible dermatology deal and/or regional oncology JV? The pressure on the stock due to a lack of clarity on the financing to go forward and announcement of an SPA can at times be very unnerving.

Do we now have the "investors" in the preferred shorting the ____ out of the common for a better conversion rate? A low price helps only the person buying the preferred shares.

It really seems a moment to consider cutting your losses. My confidence is seriously waning. SI poster

The above is a sampling of what I have received recently via calls, e-mail (directly to me or through i.am.a.pvct.investor@gmail.com) and the blog. As much as readership statistics clearly indicate growing interest in and awareness of Provectus and PV-10 (a great thing taking the long-term view of eventual price appreciation), in the short-term increasing numbers of comments such as these anecdotally suggest shareholders feeling more and more unnerved and lost.

These emotions are natural. You feel them when you are considerably underwater in your share cost basis, cannot easily foresee the path forward for the share price to higher and loftier levels, and feel insecure in your investment or trading thesis of the stock.

Proponents and practitioners of behavioral finance would suggest now might be a good time to begin buying the stock. But that will not make some of you feel better.

There is selling: The simplest reason for the drastic drop in the share price is there are more sellers than buyers. Sellers, whether forced, shorting structurally or purposefully, fearful of dilution, having lost the conviction of their principles or belief in their investment theses, etc., are selling. Buyers need more information and clarity, and are not buying enough to offset the selling.

Barring news, it is not unreasonable to expect further pressure on the stock this week and into the middle of next week. More people will get unnerved and more people will sell. You could and probably will be tested further.

PVCTP is not exactly helping: The uncertainty surrounding the PVCTP "IPO" remains. I have heard no specifics regarding pricing, save the speculation masked as certainty from Maxim. If the preferred offering is utilized, having Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson co-leads would mean company friendly terms.

The SPA?: The lack of an SPA PR announcing its receipt has disappointed some.

It is not difficult to see why an agreed upon SPA would be desirable to have...An SPA can be appealing to the industry since it is sometimes difficult to get timely feedback from the agency. Once FDA has indicated it accepts the protocol, a company will assume it has a written contract with the reviewing division assuring acceptance of the proposed efficacy claim if the data fit the prospectively defined success criteria. This is perceived to reduce risk by eliminating the fear that a positive outcome in Phase III might not result in approval if the trial design is not acceptable to FDA. Obviously that kind of risk minimization is alluring to analysts and board members. (Source)

Management is committed to the process. As I wrote yesterday, I am led to believe there is no more negotiating or discussion with the FDA on the trial design. But, the SPA will arrive when it arrives.

It is also important to be realistic about the SPA time frame...[T]he SPA process has, at times, become a protracted early battleground for future efficacy claims. Very often the disagreements are centered on the primary outcome variable and intended statistical analysis. Of course those are intimately related to future label claims and size of the study, possibly the most vital elements in a development program. (same source as above)

Balance sheet?: And concerns remain about the company having sufficient money to begin conducting, let alone completing, pivotal, key and other trial work.

There is no doubt the stock is broken, but the company is not. Broken stocks see their share prices fall despite sound fundamentals; in Provectus' case, very attractive clinical, regulatory and business value propositions (and some aspects of the stock value proposition as well). Broken companies are flawed in one or more fundamental ways, and their share prices are very validly beaten up for them.

Nothing has changed from my depiction of the horserace on Sunday. Timing is an issue, but when is it not. These things will play themselves out. My investment thesis remains. I am not here to hold your hand, but to ask you:

Has PV-10's clinical value proposition and, thus, your investment thesis changed for the worse?

Quick Hits for July 1

MM Phase 2 results bested Phase 1 results. Phase 3 will best Phase 2.

Combination therapy underway.

I want to thank a friend of the blog for his illustration that Provectus shares are a very, very tightly wound garage door coil (torsion spring). That's a great image. Loosen a bolt here and there incorrectly, and if your new nick name isn't Lefty, you might well find yourself pushing up the daisies. In financial speak: when the triggers/catalysts begin to happen, you might find yourself without enough or any shares of Provectus stock at current prices.

We could be surprised by the progress of the derm discussions.

The FDA wanted a bold hazard ratio to clearly (and likely unequivocally) demonstrate PV-10's superiority over the MM Phase 3 comparator, principally because PV-10 is an intralesional agent. The point of Tuesday's PR: PV-10's MM Phase 2 PFS of >9.6 months for Stage 3 disease versus comparators' PFS that range from 1.9 to 2.6 months means the hazard ratio should (will) be achieved. By the way, 9.6+ months will only get better in Phase 3 because principal investigators will have have much more flexibility in the amount of PV-10 they can deliver to patients during the treatment period.

One of the seminal rules (approaches) to come out of the Harvard Negotiation Project: Don't bargain over positions. Positional bargaining can limit your ability to arrive at a "wise agreement," an agreement that benefits both parties; the proverbial middle ground and the whole purpose of negotiation. Instead of thinking of a position, identify the goal. A specific position is binary: you either get it or you don’t. A goal can be attained in many ways, giving you many more options for arriving at a solution. (I sourced the substance of this paragraph from here.)