A $PVCT Volcano

Generally speaking, volcanoes are not good things. Just ask the citizens of Pompeii.

Aside from you (the reader of this blog) and I, no one in the capital markets really cares about Provectus. Yes, that statement was a bit of hyperbole, but it's reasonably accurate. To be specific, no institutional investor cares about the company's stock. Yahoo Finance! lists near zero institutional or mutual fund ownership.

MSN Money confirms the lack of interest.

Literally no one in the markets, except for you and I, cares about the stock, the drug, the data,... Adam Feuerstein's Biotech Stock Mailbag of last week had the very descriptive statement below about Celsion: "Wall Street largely shunned Celsion until the very end because no one believed its data..."

What did CLSN do in 2012? More than a 4x increase in share price. 2013 of course was another matter...

We're getting closer to a very significant test of the share price. Either there is a volcanic eruption or two in it, or there merely are puffs of smoke. Life sciences and other investors are supposed to buy after the SPA (around March 18th) and again after Moffitt (early-April). That's only 4 to 7 weeks off.

$PVCT: Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!

The mostly institutional, but non-life sciences, participants of Provectus' March 2010 private placement (1Q10) are likely mostly gone. I think nearly 85% of the preferred shares have been converted to date into common stock and sold over time. My assumption is that these folks either held the preferred to enjoy the coupon, or converted them into common share that they sold right away.

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The preferred shares in the placement were issued at $0.75 per share. Most of the 85% -- about 60% of this number -- converted and very likely sold within 3 quarters of the placement. 15% gradually sold as the common stock share price stayed above the issue price (through 2Q12). Another 10%, I think, sold in last quarter (3Q) and are selling thus far this quarter (4Q).

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Some funds took profit very quickly. Others held on to take profit more slowly or in hopes of greater but still faster return. I wonder if some of the recent pressure on the stock has been due to the departure of more of the remaining funds that participated in the placement.

Click on the figure to enlarge it.