$PVCT Europe Bound

Peter leaves for Europe on Monday for business development activities, which may include meetings with some or all of prospective pharma partners, industry KOLs, potential investors and existing shareholders. This trip appears more focused on partners and partnerships.

$PVCT: It doesn't get more definitive.

It doesn't get more simple than this. I think management's position on two key value drivers clearly is definitive.

#1. The SPA is key to life sciences investors getting into the stock because of the very specific regulatory path clarity and the management of such it provides. Get the SPA, and these investors will buy Provectus shares.

#2. Life sciences investors need to understand PV-10's clinical relevance. Substantive data explaining the "bystander effect" and PV-10's immune mediated signaling, a new pathway, among other things, will be presented at a major conference and contemporaneously published in a peer-reviewed publication for the first time (I am confident I figured out the names of the conference and journal). Moffitt explains the systemic and immune-mediated benefit of local agent PV-10, and these investors will buy stock.

#3. China needs no comment from management. Close at least a good regional license deal with good upfront, milestone and royalty payments, and investors of all stripes will buy Provectus shares.

I looked at these three near-term value drivers -- the SPA, Moffitt's work and a China deal -- and their respective importance to key Provectus constituents: the FDA, Big Pharma, life sciences investors, and investors at large (of which I of course am one). This assessment is illustrated in the table below.

The FDA is the constiuent most relevant to PV-10's regulatory path for (a) the SPA so Provectus ultimately may achieve approval for the focused label of local treatment of Stage III MM cancer patients, (b) accelerated approval for MM, which could have a one-in-two chance of being achieved after Moffitt's conference presentation and journal publication, and (c) to a lesser extent only because management is mum on the topic, breakthrough therapy designation for liver cancer.

Big Pharma cares about the SPA, but it seems they care much more about Moffitt's story and explanation of PV-10's clinical relevance. Randomized data, interim or otherwise, is very meaningful to Big Pharma. Should the pivotal MM trial start at the end of March or in April, it is conceivable an interim dataset could be made available to Pfizer and others to peruse in late-Q3 or Q4 2013. Nevertheless, the new pathway discovered explains how PV-10 facilitates the death of cancer, and it could be novel and important enough to spur Big Pharma to act. Only time and the degree of Moffitt's reception by the global oncology community will tell.

Life Sciences Investors care about the SPA and Moffitt. Management comes across as definitive on these items: Get it and explain it, respectively, and these investors will buy Provectus stock.

Investors at large care about the SPA, Moffitt and China. Portions of this constituency get in early -- before the SPA, Moffitt and China fully unfold -- because they like the story and think they understand the opportunity. Other portions jump in after one or more of these events occur. Still others enter the fray as the share price moves higher.

It is fair, now, to both management and shareholders, to measure the resulting movement or lack of movement in share price after the SPA's receipt and Moffitt's explanations, whether you're an investor in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Hong Kong, New York, Illinois, Texas, Tennessee, California, or in one of many other places in North America, Europe and Asia.

In truth, no one really knows what the company's share price will do until it does it. After the SPA and Moffitt, let's take stock (pardon the pun) of Provectus, management and the share price.

PVCT: Change -- Pete is presenting at #BIOCEO13 on February 11 @ 1100 ET

Conference details may be found here. Craig is under the weather, and cannot travel to BioCEO in New York.

$PVCT: A reminder Craig is presenting at #BIOCEO13 on Monday @ 1100 ET

Conference details may be found here.

$PVCT: Noble Financial Capital Markets Ninth Annual Equity Conference

Management will be presenting at the above conference on January 22.

$PVCT: Form D Filing

Provectus filed a Form D today noting it had raised $2.0MM, which previously had been mentioned in the 10-Q earlier this month.

$PVCT.OB: NYSSA Life Sciences Conference

Craig is speaking at the New York Society of Security Analysts' Life Sciences Conference on Thursday, November 29 at 11:45 am EST.

Quick Hits for July 1

MM Phase 2 results bested Phase 1 results. Phase 3 will best Phase 2.

Combination therapy underway.

I want to thank a friend of the blog for his illustration that Provectus shares are a very, very tightly wound garage door coil (torsion spring). That's a great image. Loosen a bolt here and there incorrectly, and if your new nick name isn't Lefty, you might well find yourself pushing up the daisies. In financial speak: when the triggers/catalysts begin to happen, you might find yourself without enough or any shares of Provectus stock at current prices.

We could be surprised by the progress of the derm discussions.

The FDA wanted a bold hazard ratio to clearly (and likely unequivocally) demonstrate PV-10's superiority over the MM Phase 3 comparator, principally because PV-10 is an intralesional agent. The point of Tuesday's PR: PV-10's MM Phase 2 PFS of >9.6 months for Stage 3 disease versus comparators' PFS that range from 1.9 to 2.6 months means the hazard ratio should (will) be achieved. By the way, 9.6+ months will only get better in Phase 3 because principal investigators will have have much more flexibility in the amount of PV-10 they can deliver to patients during the treatment period.

One of the seminal rules (approaches) to come out of the Harvard Negotiation Project: Don't bargain over positions. Positional bargaining can limit your ability to arrive at a "wise agreement," an agreement that benefits both parties; the proverbial middle ground and the whole purpose of negotiation. Instead of thinking of a position, identify the goal. A specific position is binary: you either get it or you don’t. A goal can be attained in many ways, giving you many more options for arriving at a solution. (I sourced the substance of this paragraph from here.)