February 19, 2013

$PVCT's #China #Pharma Process In More Detail

Peter should be off to China in a week. What may or could happen?

A. He secures a deal.
If Peter gets a deal done, he:
  1. Returns with the upfront payment,
  2. Signs an memorandum of understanding ("MOU") that at least identifies the Chinese strategic partner by name, or
  3. Signs a letter of intent ("LOI") with the partner where key provisions (i.e., terms) would have been agreed to by the partner and Provectus to provide the basis for definitive agreements.
Along branches (2) and (3), definitive agreements could be completed, signed and then enable the company to receive the upfront payment within 30 to 60 days.

B. Peter does not secure the deal because the intermediary Provectus used for China is unable to get the strategic partners to do the contemplated deal.
It appears the process of bringing partners to the table, after blessings have been provided by and an agreement has been reached with the Chinese central government, is not dissimilar to an arranged marriage. Potential brides with dowries of different amounts, composition and strategic value in hand assemble in a "room" -- depending on whether the current agent is able to get them into the room (i.e., get them to agree to the general terms and conditions previously approved by the government) -- for Peter and the team that will travel with him to China, to pick. If no bride has a sufficient dowry, he returns to China with a new agent or intermediary, say in another month or more, to renew his attempt to secure a deal. Management believes China will not turn the company down because of strong interest there to do a deal with Provectus.

C. The Board and management elect to turn down a China deal because of Big Pharma interest to do a much larger global license for PV-10.

Enough said.

What are the probabilities of A, B and C? I do not know, although I do have my opinion. Like you, I will wait to see what PR and SEC filing, if any, are issued and made the week of March 4th, and then ask for explanations if necessary.

I have high expectations for management to get a very good deal done if China, if and should they close such a deal. The market and most observers of Provectus have little to no expectations. Expectations may rise closer to the week of March 4th, but more likely only after a deal has been struck and its details made known. To life sciences investors and investors at large, China and Provectus is the ultimate "Show-Me," as they say in Missouri.

My own expectations are in the table below.

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